Miami Hurricanes Football Week 1 Preview: Louisville

We waited nearly a year. Then just months. Finally, we had to wait only weeks. And now, we are just days away from the 2014 season. Will the defensive tackle situation improve? Can the thin linebacking corps stay healthy? Can Duke Johnson carry this team to new heights and become a Heisman finalist in the process? How will Brad Kaaya fare in his freshman season under center? We are so close to starting to receive answers to those questions. Now—and I’m so excited to say this—we can finally fully turn our attention towards Miami’s week one matchup with the Louisville Cardinals.

Game Details

Miami Hurricanes (0-0, 0-0 ACC) at Louisville Cardinals (0-0, 0-0 ACC)

Monday, September 1, 8 pm, ESPN

Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY

Line: Louisville by 3.5

Passing Offense vs. Louisville

June 30, 2013; Beaverton, OR, USA; Brad Kaaya, of West Hills, California, goes through drills during the morning session of the Elite 11 at Nike World Headquarters. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Wouldn’t we all like to know how this is going to go? By this point, you know the weapons at the disposal of true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya: Stacy Coley and Herb Waters should get the start on the outside and Phillip Dorsett is a straight burner in the slot. Clive Walford and Stan Dobard will be very solid at tight end. Malcolm Lewis, Braxton Berriors, Tyre Brady and D’Mauri Jones should see the field for the Hurricanes as well.

Even so, this is likely going to be some tough sledding for the passing attack. Louisville finished fitth in the country in yards per game through the air a season ago, albeit against relatively pedestrian competition. And while the Cardinals lose both starting safeties from a year ago in Hakeem Smith and Calvin Pryor, they return both starting corners who combined to intercept nine (!!) passes a season ago. Junior Jermaine Reve is set to step in at FS and played in 13 games last year while new SS junior Gerod Holliman played in 11. Both were largely special teams players and should be okay, but if Miami is going to make hay through the air, they’re going to have to do it over the middle of the field, as Louisville is most vulnerable at safety.

For Brad Kaaya, the key will be to avoid crippling interceptions. It’s going to be tough out there but if he can “keep the team on schedule,” as coaches love to say, the run game should be good enough to make the offense pretty effective against a very good Cardinals defense (more on the run game in the next section). However, if we see multiple pick-sixes or drive-killing turnovers, this game could get out of hand.

Key Matchup: Dorsett over the top vs. Louisville’s safeties keeping everything in front of them

Almost went with “True freshman QB vs. crippling mistakes”, but I’ll be a little more optimistic than that. This seems like a really nice opportunity for Dorsett to do his deep thing and Kaaya to to bomb it down the middle. However, if Louisville’s relatively green safeties are able to keep everything in front of them, Miami’s in trouble in this game. This is going to go a long well in how successful Miami can be offensively on Monday night.

Rushing Offense vs. Louisville

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object? Is that unmovable object still unmovable anyway? These questions may just decide who wins this football game. In the first career game for Brad Kaaya, it will be absolutely crucial that the rushing game is able to find piles of yards on the ground. I’d venture so far as to say if Miami doesn’t find at least 150 rushing yards, they’re probably dead in the water. Louisville’s tenacious rushing defense from 2013 is well-chronicled, and for good reason: first in the entire nation in rushing yards per game allowed. But the Cardinals lost some key guys from their dominant front seven and the ‘Canes might just be catching them at the right time.

On the line, the only three guys who played all 13 games—DE Marcus Smith and DTs Roy Philon and Brandon Dunn—are gone and so are their combined 106 tackles and 19.5 sacks. Smith is the big loss there. Junior Sheldon Rankins and senior B.J. Debruse should be the Cardinals’ defensive ends in new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s 3-4 scheme and they should be solid; between them they had 21 games of experience in 2013. The NT is where it gets dicey for Louisville and that’s bad news considering the NT is literally the most important position in a 3-4. Those responsibilities should fall to redshirt sophomore DeAngelo Brown, who played sparingly on special teams as a freshman in 2012 and picked up a medical redshirt last year after blowing out his achilles in summer practice. This is really where Miami can exploit the Cardinals’ defensive line. The linebacking corps is mostly back, except for top ILB Preston Brown and Louisville will have to find a way to replace his 84.5 tackles and 4.5 sacks from 2013.

On the Miami side of things, this running game should be nearly unstoppable, at least in most games. The line is completely set and very good at four positions with LT Ereck Flowers, LG John Feliciano, C Shane McDermott, and RG Danny Isadora. While it’s very concerning that Taylor Gadbois hasn’t been able to separate himself from true freshman Kc McDermott and Trevor Darling at RT (offensive line is the toughest position to make the immediate high school to college transition aside from quarterback), the freshmen pushing him from behind were very highly-touted recruits and I would be shocked if that position turns out to be an unmitigated disaster. It would certainly need to be to bring down the rest of this line. I don’t even need to go into the talent of Duke Johnson—and having Joe Yearby and Gus Edwards behind him isn’t too bad either. However, this may be the best front seven the Hurricanes see this year outside of Florida State. The rushing offense will need to hum anyway if Miami wants a shot to win.

Key Matchup: Miami’s interior line vs. exploiting Louisville’s weakness at DT

If Miami can get solid push through the middle of the line, that would severely mitigate the overall strength of Louisville’s front seven. While James Coley loves running off tackle and will on Monday, it would behoove Miami to test the middle of the line as well.

Passing Defense vs. Louisville

Sep 21, 2013; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Will Gardner (11) looks to pass during the second half of play against the FIU Golden Panthers at Papa John

As much as I would love to skip this section, here we go. Here’s the good news: Miami’s secondary should be by far the most solid group on this defensive unit. At safety, newly converted Dallas Crawford should be incredibly versatile and excel whether he’s blitzing or dropping into coverage. Opposite him, Deon Bush is a tremendous player and he’s one of the guys I’m most excited to see this year. His role should be to mostly play center field and make sure nothing gets behind him. I’m pretty confident in him to accomplish that. Miami has a pile of viable guys at corner and Ladarius Gunter and Tracy Howard will likely start, with Antonio Crawford, Artie Burns and Corn Elder also rotating in to see meaningful playing time. If Miami gets burned this year, it’s probably going to be because of missed tackles instead of just getting torched over the top. Neither sounds pleasant.

Specifically against Louisville the ‘Canes match up…hold on I’m not sure if I can say this…alright here goes nothing…pretty okay, man. Pretty okay. I don’t really want to talk about the linebackers in coverage situation, so let’s stick to the fact that Louisville loses a plethora of important players from last year’s vaunted attack, namely QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Cardinals will counter with redshirt sophomore Will Gardner, who should be good but not Teddy Bridgewater. One thing that scares me is that Gardner reportedly put up a stat line of 32-for-37 for 542 yards at 4 TDs (!!!!!!!!!!!!) in the spring game, but obviously you can take that will multiple heaps of salt.

The receivers for Louisville are no longer world-beaters but should be at least decent. 2013’s top receiver (by target rate at least) Damien Copeland is gone and so is stud senior DeVante Parker with an injury for at least the first half of the year. Without those two, senior Eli Rodgers is now your numero uno. He’s put up back-to-back years of 500+ receiving yards. Sophomore James Quick is probably the next guy up, and he’s a former five star recruit, although unproven at this level. Also look our for sophomore Kai De La Cruz.

All of the above said, I’m still terrified because, after all, this is the defense. Hold on to your seats.

Key matchup: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, COVER SOMEBODY

This is going to be the key matchup until Miami proves they can do it.

Rushing Defense vs. Louisville

Dec 28, 2013; Orlando, FL, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Dominique Brown (10) runs against the Miami Hurricanes in the Russell Athletic Bowl at Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Alright, here’s where things continue to get freaky. The starting linebacking corps could actually be solid (especially with Denzel Perryman), but the Hurricanes can nary afford even one injury there after a downright horrific crime committed by two key former Hurricanes destroyed any depth this unit had—and that wasn’t much anyway. The line…reply hazy, try again later. Chickillo should continue to be solid, if unspectacular, and on the other side of the line at rush end we’ll see some combination of Tyriq McCord and AQM. I expect above-average play from that side, but maybe I’m being too optimistic. Anyway, of course the main area of concern here is the tackles. Olson Pierre is locked into one of the spots and the other is up for grabs. Hopefully, Michael Wyche works his way into shape and grabs it, but the likely starter will be Calvin Heurtelou. When Miami goes to their 3-4 base, it’s anybody’s guess who will stick at NT; mine is Pierre. This isn’t going to be particularly pretty.

Louisville was solid, not great, on the ground last year, but with Teddy Bridgewater you don’t need to be all that great on the ground. Everyone seems to be freaking out over the probable loss of Michael Dyer, but—at least in my mind—that’s not a very big deal. Last year Dyer was the third option at running back, and while one of the two ahead of him is gone, Louisville’s #1 option from 2013 is back, in senior Dominique Brown. He picked up 5.1 yards per carry last year on 163 touches with eight touchdowns. Bradon Radcliff and Corvin Lamb will scoop up any additional carries that Dyer would’ve had. Over the course of the season losing Dyer would be a small issue; in a one game scenario it’s not really a factor. The offensive line is going to be really good, with four returning starters and four seniors. Expect Louisville to have no problem reaching and surpassing that 5.1 YPC mark for Brown. Cover your eyes.

Key matchup: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, TACKLE SOMEBODY

Again, until Miami proves they can do it, here we are.

Special Teams

This should be a major boon for Louisville this year, as the Cardinals return literally everyone of note from last year’s 28th-ranked unit (based on Bill Connelly’s Special Teams F/+). Senior punter Ryan Johnson averaged 41.2 yards over 39 punts last year and should improve slightly. This is certainly not spectacular, but not poor either. Senior kicker John Wallace was awesome in 2013, converting all of his kicks of fewer than 40 yards and 18 of 20 overall. In the return game, Miami should probably kick away from junior Charles Gaines, who averaged better than 30 yards per kickoff return last year and took one to the house. Punt return duties probably fall to senior Eli Rodgers, who picked up 8.2 yards per on 10 returns last year.

Miami should be solid at kicker this year, with Matt Goudis returning, and downright explosive in the return game with Coley, Dorsett and Artie Burns likely to get looks. Punter is going to be dicey and replacing world-beater Pat O’Donnell will be impossible. Redshirt sophomore Justin Vogel is the guy and says he’s been averaging 43 yards per kick in camp. Take that for what you will.

Key matchup: Stacy Coley and Phil Dorsett vs. getting past the first level on kickoff returns

Coley and Dorsett have as much speed as anyone in college football but weren’t really able to break huge returns a season ago. If they can get into the second level of the kick coverage, watch out.

Three Offensive Keys To Victory

1. Test Louisville’s untested safeties deep over the middle.

2. Exploit the Cardinals’ weakness at NT.

3. Avoid crippling freshman mistakes at quarterback. You can go ahead and assume this is going to be a key for most games this year.

Three Defensive Keys To Victory

1. GET A PASS RUSH ON SOMEBODY!

2. COVER SOMEBODY!

3. TACKLE SOMEBODY!

These will continue to be the three keys until Miami proves they don’t need to be anymore.

Prediction Time

Let me qualify this by first saying that predictions are dumb. I don’t know what is going to happen; you don’t know what is going to happen; Bobby Petrino and Al Golden don’t know what is going to happen. All I can do is to take the admittedly small amount of available information and form as much of as an educated guess as possible. With that in mind, here are some opportunities for me to look idiotic after the game:

• Brad Kaaya throws for between 200 and 250 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, one of which is really, really bad
• Duke Johnson goes for at least 150 yards on the ground
• The defensive tackles look only marginally improved from a year ago and don’t make much of an impact
• Louisville wins, 34-21