Miami Hurricanes Football Week 3 Preview: Arkansas State

Game Details

Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) vs. Miami Hurricanes (1-1, 0-1 ACC)

Saturday, September 13, 3:30 pm, ESPNU

Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Line: Miami -16.5

Many Hurricanes fans this week are harping on not taking Arkansas State lightly. I certainly think that’s a nice thing to say and to avoid major letdowns a big name team like Miami shouldn’t take anyone lightly. Our own Andrew Ferrelli had a nice post about that yesterday. That said, I don’t think the Red Wolves are anywhere near as decent as people are making them out to be and this should be an easy win for the Hurricanes. (Keep in mind I’m not a blind homer—I was the only person on this staff who picked Miami to lose to Louisville and I predicted them to go down by two touchdowns.) They do have a tremendous recent history, but I don’t think that has too much bearing on this game. Here’s the official Canes Warning preview.

Passing Offense vs. Arkansas State

Sep 1, 2014; Louisville, KY, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half of play at Papa John

I’ll just come out with this now: this is going to be the toughest matchup of the game for Miami. Last year, Arkansas State’s passing defense was actually very good for a Sun Belt squad, finishing in the top-60 of Bill Connelly’s Passing Success Rate+, which is adjusted for competition. The Red Wolves return their entire secondary from a season ago. I mean literally everyone. The defensive secondary has a very good chance of being the best of any mid-major school. The names to know are corners Rocky Haynes and Artez Brown, who are very athletic with good range. Last year, they combined for 72.5 tackles, four interceptions and 20 pass breakups. The safeties, Chris Humes and Sterling Young and dependable and experienced. There’s also a wealth of talent behind these guys. Like I said, this unit is solid. The linebacker unit also returns all of the key guys, but the front four is depleted so pass rush shouldn’t be too much to worry about for the ‘Canes. I’ll cover those details more in the next section.

On the Miami side of the ball, as we know, Stacy Coley is down out this Saturday. I don’t have a relationship with the Miami coaching staff and haven’t confirmed this with them, but I have it on pretty good knowledge that his injury is more serious than the staff is letting on and he could miss some significant time. Because of that, it’s going to be important for some younger guys to step in and get some reps in this game before the pressure really gets turned up next week and beyond. Brad Kaaya looked okay against FAMU, but I like this matchup for him. Even though the ASU secondary is solid, Miami has studs at receiver and they can certainly get open with the amount of time Kaaya is going to have. One of Brad’s problems so far has been holding onto the ball too long in the pocket. That shouldn’t be an issue this game as he’s going to have a lot of time to throw.

Key Matchup: Brad Kaaya vs. Freshman mistakes against an experienced secondary

Kaaya has been solid  at times but understandably prone to true freshman mistakes thus far. You can bet ASU is going to throw a lot of disguised coverages and different defensive looks at him this week to goad him into some head-shaking throws. If he can simply avoid those, the rushing offense should be enough to steamroll this defense.

Rushing Offense vs. Arkansas State

Sep 6, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Joseph Yearby (2) eludes Florida A&M Rattlers defensive back Jules Dornevil (13) during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

This is where it gets fun for Miami. Arkansas State had a pretty solid defensive front last year, but lost a wealth of talent and experience to graduation. Of the nine guys on the defensive line who saw playing time in 2013, five are gone, including dominant NT Ryan Carrethers, who led the line with 63.5 tackles and four sacks. Key DE Eddie Porter is also gone. There are a few dependable bodies left to fill the void though. Junior DE Chris Stone had 35 tackles and three sacks last year and senior NT Dexter Blackmon was productive last year and should at least challenge Carrethers’s daunting numbers this year.

However, even with the return of most linebackers, this is a matchup where Miami should really make some hay. This front seven is a major step back from last season for the Red Wolves and Duke Johnson and company should be able to take advantage with aplomb. Expect to see a heavy dose of Joe Yearby in this game as well. He looked great last week (granted, against an FCS opponent) and seems to be quickly supplanting Gus Edwards for the number two running back, a welcome development in my book. We should also look for Kc McDermott, who stepped in at times for a struggling Taylor Gadbois last weekend. Is he the answer this year at RT? Freshman offensive lineman have major trouble making the jump from high school (it’s the most difficult transition of any position save for quarterback), but it’s worth monitoring going forward.

Key Matchup: A super awesome day on the ground vs. Tempering expectations going forward

All signs point to a super day on the ground for the Hurricanes’ rushing attack. That said, it’s going to be important to keep level expectations after this game. This is a particularly rosy matchup for an offensive line that still has some major question marks. It’s going to be fun tomorrow, but challenges await.

Passing Defense vs. Arkansas State

Sep 6, 2014; Knoxville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers defensive lineman Curt Maggitt (56) pursues Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten (9) during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee won 34 to 19. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Seeing Tracy Howard and Ladarius Gunter both get burned in man coverage against Florida A&M was discouraging to say the least, but overall it was still a banner day for what really looks to be a much-improved defense. (For really this time, guys!!) This is again a matchup that shapes up well for Miami, as Arkansas State has serious issues in the passing offense. Andrew mentioned junior QB Fredi Knighten, who’s in his first year as a starter, in his piece yesterday. While he’s certainly a prolific runner, it remains to be seen if he can really fulfill the passing responsibilities of a quarterback. Knighten was not very good last week at Tennessee, a defense of at least fairly similar quality to Miami, throwing for just 4.9 yards per attempt. For those of you who don’t track that statistic, that’s just putrid. While he did complete 61% of his passes, the longest went for 18 yards in a largely unsuccessful dink-and-dunk affair. It’s unreasonable to expect Knighten to burn the ‘Canes through the air at all.

At receiver, Tres Houston and J.D. McKissic are the guys. No one else has more than four receptions this year. The aforementioned duo combined for 21 catches and 256 yards in ASU’s first two games, a win against Montana State and loss at Tennessee. There’s not much depth here. If Tracy Howard and Ladarius Gunter can stay with these two (unfortunately a bigger “if” than I thought that would be a week ago), the Red Wolves are going to have nothing through the air.

Key matchup: Tres Houston and J.D. McKissic vs. Tracy Howard and Ladarius Gunter

I pretty much just laid this out, but here it is in stone. Shut down these two, and it’s moving the ball on the ground or not at all for ASU.

Rushing Defense vs. Arkansas State

Jan 5, 2014; Mobile, AL, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten (9) carries against the Ball State Cardinals during the third quarter at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, that is the same guy from the Passing Defense vs. Arkansas State section. Here’s where Knighten is a little scary; he’s a prolific runner. In two games, he’s averaged 5.3 yards on 30 rushes with a long of 43 yards and a touchdown. Keep in mind, sacks come out of rushing, so the real number is above 6 yards per carry. Miami will have to be very careful to keep contain here or they could get burned for huge chunks of yardage with Knighten taking off. In 2013 and 2012 he averaged 6 yards per carry or better, so these first two games have been far from a flash in the pan. At running back, leading rusher Michael Gordon returns. He picked up 6.7 (!!) yards per carry on 112 rushes last year, but he has just 14 touches through two games in 2014. The rushing attack is truly the Fredi Knighten show.

On the Miami side, this defense faired very well against a rushing quarterback last week in FAMU’s Damien Fleming. While this is a significant step up in competition, the offensive line for ASU still isn’t particularly good, losing both guards and its left tackle from 2013. As long as Miami can hold Fleming to a reasonable amount of rushing yards (he had 65 against Tennessee), they’re going to be completely fine.

Key matchup: Fleming vs. Miami keeping contain

Self-explanatory. If Miami can do it, Arkansas State will not be able to move the ball consistently.

Special Teams

Luke Ferguson handles all of the kicking duties for the Red Wolves. He’s averaged a very good 46 yards on 11 boots so far. That’s not a sample size fluke, as he finished up at a solid 44 yards per punt in 2013. On field goals he’s 3-for-3 with a long of 41 yards. ASU is quite solid in this department. On returns, look for J.D. McKissic returning punts and kickoffs. He’s shifty and dangerous.

For Miami, we’ll see a bit of a shakeup on return duties with Coley’s injury. I expect to see Phil Dorsett and Artie Burns on kickoff returns and Braxton Berries out on punts, but we’ll see. Kicker Matt Goudis was a very shaky 2-for-4 against FAMU; my money says that was a fluke (he did miss just four field goals in all of 2013), but it could be a cause for concern going forward. Punter Justin Vogel continues to be awesome, averaging better than 46 yards per punt through two games.

Key matchup: Goudis kick it through the uprights please

Thanks.

Three Offensive Keys To Victory

1. Kaaya needs to avoid freshman mistakes. I know this is basic and somewhat unavoidable, but it’s still key.

2. The offensive line needs to hold up against a flaky pass rush; it may take a little extra time for receivers to get open against a solid and experienced defensive secondary.

3. Get Duke the ball early and often. Miami’s ground attack is going to be dominant in this game.

Three Defensive Keys To Victory

1. Keep contain on Fredi Knighten. ASU doesn’t really have a rushing game without him.

2. Stick with Houston and McKissic. Past those two, the cupboard is pretty bare at receiver for ASU.

3. Stop giving up points on special teams. I know this is more of an ambiguous command than a defensive key, but back-to-back weeks conceding a head-scratching touchdown on special teams is unacceptable.

Prediction Time

• Kaaya only tosses one pick, also throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns
• Duke Johnson breaks 150 yards rushing
• Knighten goes for between 60 and 80 rushing yards but struggles to crack 6 YPA through the air
• Miami wins, 38-13