Miami Hurricanes Football Week 5 Preview: Duke

Here we go again with these guys. This game is definitely one that I’ve had circled on my calendar since Miami’s humiliating defeat in Durham last season and you have to think Miami’s players feel the same way. While the 2013 Virginia Tech game was no fun, Miami’s defense getting bombed out of Wallace Wade Stadium was the low point of last season. This year, I’m…surprisingly optimistic about this game. You can chalk that up to homerism, but it’s really not—not to toot my own horn, but through four previews this year, I’ve picked the winner every time while being within a touchdown of the margin of victory. You can call me Nostradamus if you’d like. (Really, this is just a combination of making an educated guess using all available information and a healthy portion of luck, but I prefer Nostradamus.) Anyway, I don’t want to spoil my prediction too much, but Miami matches up pretty well against Duke.

Of course, now that I brag, this is going to be the week my prediction is wildly off. Before we get to the preview, I’d like to be completely upfront: while this preview hinges on wild-ass guesses every week, the guesses are going to be even more wild-ass than usual because we really know nothing about Duke. They have four blowout wins over the likes of Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. Nice scheduling, guys! So take all the numbers herein with a grain of salt. On with the show:

Game Details

Duke Blue Devils (4-0, 0-0 ACC) vs. Miami Hurricanes (2-2, 0-1 ACC)

Saturday, September 27, 7:30 pm, ESPN2

Radio: WVUM 90.5 Coral Gables (wvum.org worldwide)

Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Line: Miami -6.5

Passing Offense vs. Duke

Sep 20, 2014; Lincoln, NE, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) throws against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Duke ranks 20th in the nation against the pass this season, giving up just 171 yards per game in that department. However, as I just mentioned, heavy opponent caveats apply here. As a hole, Football Outsiders S&P+ rankings (which are adjusted for opponent) has this defense as the 54th best in the nation, very pedestrian for a Power 5 squad. Looking at individual match-ups, Miami’s offense should excel in this game, especially after showing what they could do against a solid Nebraska defense in Lincoln last week. Duke’s secondary returns three of four starters from 2013 and while they lose CB Ross Cockrell, sophomore Byron Fields has been fine in his stead so far this year. That said, I have a hard time seeing these defensive backs keeping up with Miami’s receiving corps. None were better than 3-star prospects coming out of high school and Miami’s passing offense bombed a similar Duke defense last year to the tune of 379 yards and two scores.

Duke’s pass rush also took a huge hit from last year, losing three key DEs to graduation who combined for 13 sacks. No one else on the team had more than two. While the pass rush has looked good against poor competition and Miami’s offensive line is far from a juggernaut, Brad Kaaya should have plenty of time to throw tomorrow.

Key Matchup: 404 File Not Found

Hard to pinpoint a single key matchup in this category and I’m getting tired of writing things like “The offensive line vs. Itself”. Here’s the skinny: the offense is going to be fine in this game. Kaaya has been a resounding success so far considering his inexperience and Miami’s receivers are quite talented. I don’t think Duke’s defense has the personnel or firepower to stop the ‘Canes consistently. If Miami is going to lose this game, it will be on the defensive side.

Rushing Offense vs. Duke

Sep 6, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) prior to a game against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

You can pretty much copy/paste the previous section into here and change around some details. While I mentioned the departures on the defensive line, literally every key linebacker on the roster is back, so this defense is experienced. That said, it’s still not particularly good. In fact, the rushing defense is downright bad. Through four games (again, against Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane), Duke ranks 92nd in the country with 182 rushing yards allowed per game. If that doesn’t have you licking your lips, I don’t know what will. This game will feature a steady diet of Duke Johnson left, Duke Johnson right and Duke Johnson left and right a lot more. Last year, Dallas Crawford went for 115 yards and over 6 yards per carry in Durham. Watch out for what Duke Johnson can do. (There’s a reason I threw in a picture of his dancing this week.)

Key Matchup: Duke Johnson vs. Tripping on the hashmarks

Probably the only thing that will be able to stop him from scoring multiple touchdowns and racking up enough yards to feed a small army

Passing Defense vs. Duke

Aug 30, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Anthony Boone (7) passes against the Elon Phoenix defense at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Alright, here’s where things stop getting so rosy. The “defensive improvement” honeymoon is over and it once again seems like having Mark D’Onofrio running this defense is a major road block to Miami taking the next step as a program. Last week, Ameer Abdullah ran over Miami’s defense, but it wasn’t just him. The defensive line was dominated at the point of attack and—I don’t care what Golden and D’Onofrio say about the “scheme working”—it was clear to everyone in the stadium Nebraska was going to pound it on the ground just about every play and Miami never loaded the box to force Tommy Armstrong to beat them with his arm (which I don’t think he could have done). But I digress.

Tomorrow, Miami has a chance to redeem itself from last week’s performance against another team that’s great on the ground and suspect through the air. Gulp. Happily, we can start with the whole suspect through the air thing. Anthony Boone is back at QB this year after a 2013 passing season that can be describe as okay at best: a very pedestrian 6.6 YPA with 13 TDs and 13 picks. That is a giant, screaming meh. Thus far in 2014—again, really, really bad competition—he has continued his completely acceptable and unspectacular play while cutting down on the picks with that same 6.6 YPA and 7 TDs to one interception. (He is, however, very much a dual threat. We’ll get to that in the next section.) Suffice it to say that I’m not worried about the passing defense in this game.

If you would like to know some receivers anyway, I can do that for you. Jamison Crowder is your numero uno, he of the 295 receiving yards through four games. Max McCaffrey and Isaac Blakeney have also each hauled in at least 182 receiving yards. No one else has more than 57, so those are the guys. Personally, I’m not really afraid of any of them save for Crowder, who has to be labeled as one of the best receivers in the ACC.

Key matchup: Jamison Crowder vs. Whoever is assigned to Jamison Crowder

If Miami keeps Crowder under wraps, Duke’s passing game will be largely dead. Who the ‘Canes decide to line up opposite him remains to be seen as the secondary has been a revolving door of personnel so far. Seriously though, this passing offense has put up just okay numbers against terrible defenses thus far. I’m not worried. (I will probably live to regret those words.)

Rushing Defense vs. Duke

Sep 13, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Shaun Wilson (29) runs for a touchdown against the Kansas Jayhawks at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s where I’m a little worried. Last week, I had the gall to write, “Some opponent caveats apply to [Miami’s improved rushing defense], but Arkansas State and Louisville both have decent rushing attacks. Combine that with Nebraska’s green offensive line and I don’t think Abdullah goes nuclear in this game. He’s going to make plays and there will be missed tackles. I’ve accepted that and you should too. But overall, I think Miami can keep him to an adequate output.” Oops. Turns out, those opponent caveats were a lot larger than I thought and this rushing defense is not up to snuff.

Duke’s rushing attack has been scary so far, racking up some crazy numbers. Freshman RB Shaun Wilson is averaging 14.4 (!!!) yards per carry on 28 touches and as a team Duke has racked up an average of 261 rushing yards per game. Boone is a solid dual-threat guy, averaging 4.3 yards per carry even with sacks included for whatever reason the NCAA does this. The real number is more like 6 YPC. However, there are some things going for Miami here and not just who the Blue Devils have played. Josh Sneed and Shaquille Powell—two names you may remember from last year—both have 33 touches and are averaging just 4.5 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively, so far. That’s not particularly good against the competition they’ve faced. Furthermore, Duke’s second-leading rusher is change of pace QB Thomas Sirk, who has a lame hamstring and is listed as questionable to play. Even if he does go, he’ll be limited and that could take a lot out of this rushing attack.

Key matchup: TACKLE SOMEBODY PLEASE

PLEASE.

Special Teams

Duke’s kicker is Ross Martin and he has been outstanding thus far—22-for-22 on extra points and 6-for-6 on field goals, including two from beyond 40 yards. Will Monday handles punts and he’s pretty good at 42 yards per kick on 11 attempts this year. That’s solid but unspectacular.

Of note for Miami, Goudis will again miss tomorrow’s game. Michael Badgely did well last Saturday, knocking through a 34-yard field goal and connecting on all four of his extra point attempts. However, the kicking game should still be fairly limited.

Key matchup: We maybe have a kicker?

Yay?

Three Offensive Keys To Victory

1. Avoid the bad interceptions. This is about the only thing Brad has done poorly. Miami should have no problem scoring enough points to win this game as long as they don’t turn it over.

2. Give the ball to Duke and watch out. He’s going to get yards, people.

3. Seriously just give the ball to Duke and GTFO of the way.

Three Defensive Keys To Victory

1. Do whatever you can to lock down Jamison Crowder.

2. Please get some push up front. Anything. Please. Also please tackle. #Analysis

3. Pray to whichever deity you subscribe to that Thomas Sirk’s hamstring is still balky.

Prediction Time

I’m ditching the three bullet-pointed things and just going with a brief paragraph and score prediction from here on out. Miami’s offense is going to have a big day; I have a hard time finding a bad match-up for the ‘Canes in the passing and rushing games. The onus is on the defense here. If D’Onofrio’s bunch plays even like an average college football team, Miami will win quite easily. I see the defense as playing a little below average in this game, but not enough for the ‘Canes to lose. Miami gets off on the right foot in Coastal play. Miami 38, Duke 30