Miami Hurricanes Football Week 7 Preview: Cincinnati

Game Details

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-2, 0-1 American) vs. Miami Hurricanes (3-3, 1-2 ACC)

Saturday, October 11, Noon, ESPN3/Fox Sports Florida

Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Line: Miami -14.5

The Hurricanes step out of conference play this week after a very frustrating week in the wake of one of the most agonizing losses of Al Golden’s tenure. In a week dominated by calls for Al Golden’s job*, here’s a chance to finally get back on the field and talk about football. I’ll happily take it. I can tell you right off the bat that—at least based on all available information—this game should go quite well for the Hurricanes.

[*For the record, I don’t think he’s the guy to take Miami back to national prominence, regardless of who the defensive coordinator is. I’ll let you infer my feelings on what action the administration should or should not take from that.]

Passing Offense vs. Cincinnati

Oct 4, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) throws a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

This Cincinnati defense is appallingly bad. Saying that Miami should have no problem through the air tomorrow is about the biggest understatement you could make aside from saying that Miami should have no problem on the ground tomorrow. We’ll start with the passing defense, which ranks 121st in the nation (there are 128 teams total in the FBS). While Cincy did play Ohio State in Columbus, their other three games were against the likes of Toledo, Miami (OH) and Memphis. Last week, in a 41-14 loss to Memphis (not a typo), this defense allowed 12.4 YPA (!!) to Tigers QB Paxton Lynch. Want another embarrassing nugget? How about allowing 10.1 YPA to Miami (OH) signal-caller Andrew Hendrix. He barely cracked 6 YPA against a 2-4 Michigan outfit that let Gary Freaking Nova have a field day last week. The Bearcats have also intercepted a single pass this entire season as a team. Yeah, this defense is really bad.

Cincy’s one relative strength is pass rush—they’ve picked up 12 sacks on the season, including a combined 5.5 from their DEs, Brad Harrah and Terrell Hartsfield. Unfortunately for the Bearcats, this plays into Miami’s hands as the ‘Canes are strongly fortified at tackle right now with Flowers and Feliciano. Basically, prepare for a good time Saturday.

Key Matchup: Miami’s offense vs. Itself

While Miami’s defense has been under the microscope following last week’s loss (and rightfully so), Miami could’ve easily won the game if not for red zone turnovers. As long as this unit doesn’t beat itself again with unforced errors, Miami will have absolutely no problems offensively.

Rushing Offense vs. Cincinnati

Oct 4, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) runs the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Did I say passing was going to be fun? Because this should be even better. If you thought Cincinnati’s 121st ranking in pass defense was bad, they’re actually worse against the run, coming in at 123rd in the country at 255 (!!) yards allowed per game. Overall, this defense ranks 127th in the nation, allowing 562 yards per game. (Again, there are 128 teams in the FBS.) And that’s against Toledo, Ohio State, Miami (OH) and Memphis! It’s really hard to continue to find adjectives to describe how atrocious this defense is.

Let’s go back to the Memphis game for a second. Last week, the Tigers picked up 299 yards on the ground, including 170 from lead back Sam Craft. Memphis! A more high-powered attack, Ohio State, ran for 380 (!) yards as a team with 182 yards on 6.5 per carry from Ezekiel Elliot. Duke Johnson and Joe Yearby should have a field day.

Key matchup: Run the damn ball

While you can’t argue with the production James Coley’s offense has put up this season, it’s hard to not think about the points Miami gave up in the red zone last week that could’ve been avoided simply by staying with a run game that was gashing Georgia Tech. Duke Johnson and Gus Edwards combined for just 16 carries in that game. More ground game tomorrow please.

Passing Defense vs. Cincinnati

Nov 3, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Munchie Legaux (4) throws during the first half against the Syracuse Orange at Nippert Stadium. The Bearcats defeated the Orange 35-24. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

This preview assumes stud QB Gunner Kiel will be out tomorrow and senior Munchie Legaux will start. (What an awesome name by the way.) The passing attack was really the one thing the Bearcats had going for them with former 5-star prospect Kiel at the controls, but now even this unit could spell trouble. We don’t have much to go on with Legaux, but the stuff we have isn’t too great. Last year, he averaged just 7.5 YPA in games against Purdue and Illinois before seeing his season end in Champaign due to a leg injury. Two years ago—as a sophomore—he put up that same 7.5 YPA on 230 attempts, but completed just 52% of them and threw nine picks. Last week against Memphis he was 5-for-13 for 39 yards. While he is dangerous with his legs (as we’ll get to in a second), it’s highly unlikely he’s going to beat Miami through the air.

At receiver, Cincinnati spread the wealth around well under Kiel, with five receivers hauling in at least 10 catches. The most dangerous guys are Chris Moore (11 catches, 340 yards, 5 TDs) and Mekale McKay (15 catches, 315 yards, 4 TDs) and they’ve put up monster stats, but that was with Kiel under center. These guys are still extremely dangerous, but their big play ability will be severely mitigated with Legaux running the Bearcat offense.

Key matchup: Miami’s defensive backs vs. Moore and McKay

Miami will have to adjust quickly back to a more traditional offense after facing an almost exclusively rushing attack last week. These receivers have big time speed and can get over the top of a defense easily. It does remain to be seen if Legaux has the arm to get the ball where it needs to be though.

Rushing Defense vs. Cincinnati

Oct 19, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats running back Hosey Williams (23) carries the ball during the 4th quarter of the game against the Connecticut Huskies at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Leifheit-USA TODAY Sports

The Bearcats come in ranked 103rd in the nation in rushing with just 103 yards per game. Again, remember who they played? In reality, the Bearcat ground game is probably even worse than that to this point. Hosey Williams, Tion Greene and Rodriguez Moore split carries for the Bearcats. Williams has actually averaged a healthy 5.4 yards per carry, but Greene and Moore have both failed to crack 4.3. The group also largely has no big play ability—the longest run of the season for the Bearcats is 33 yards. Overall, this rushing attack isn’t that bad; a big reason the yardage is so low is because Cincinnati understandably much preferred to throw with Kiel in the offense.

Now, the ground game should massively improve under Legaux. Again, you have to go back to 2012 to find a season where he played at least eight games, but he was extremely effective that year, running for 6.1 yards per carry on 55 carries. Excluding last week’s unique situation, Miami has fared pretty well against running quarterbacks this season so I still expect a pretty good performance out of this defense. That said, if Cincinnati is going to move the ball at all tomorrow, it’s going to have to be through Legaux’s legs.

Key matchup: Munchie Legaux taking off vs. Miami keeping contain

It’s going to be very important for Miami’s DEs to not allow Legaux to get outside the pocket and up the sideline if he chooses to scramble. As I just said, that’s really the only way I see Cincy moving the ball with any consistency.

Special Teams

Freshman Andrew Gantz handles kicking duties for the Bearcats and is 2-for-3 on the year with a miss from inside 40 yards. He’s 17-for-18 on extra points, for what that’s worth. Basically, we have no idea if he’s any good and it probably won’t matter anyway. Cool. The punting situation is an unmitigated disaster—freshman Sam Geraci is the guy and has averaged a measly 36 yards on 17 punts. Needless to say, field position should be pretty good for Miami in this game. Receiver Shaq Washington and has two for a total of 11 yards this year. Kickoff man Johnny Holton averages a paltry 20 yards per return and hasn’t broken one this season. Yawn.

For Miami, same situation as we’ve seen. Badgley has been solid at kicker; ditto for Vogel on the punting duties. Coley looked much better in the return game against GT. Hopefully that continues.

Key matchup: Stacy, continue to wake up!

That would be ideal.

Three Keys To Victory

1. Just don’t beat yourself on offense. Miami has shown an unfortunate tendency for doing so this year and it’s the only way Cincy’s maligned defense will be able to stop the ‘Canes.

2. Lock down Chris Moore and Mekale McKay. They are the Bearcats’ two most dangerous receivers by a country mile and outside of them there’s not much going on in this passing game, especially without Gunner Kiel.

3. Contain Munchie Legaux on the ground. His legs are the only way Cincinnati moves the ball without any consistency.

Prediction Time

In case you haven’t gleaned it from everything I just wrote, Cincinnati is very bad. At worst, Miami is a decent—though inconsistent—team. This will be a laugher.

Miami 45, Cincinnati 20