Miami Basketball Finishes Regular Season With Difficult Four Game Stretch
After facing North Carolina State, Georgia Tech and Clemson in three of their last five games, the Miami Hurricanes have a very difficult schedule in their last four games of the regular season.
Miami’s four game gauntlet begins with a trip to Charlottesville, Virginia to face the Virginia Cavaliers. The Hurricanes enter the nationally televised game on ESPN having won four of their last five and six of their last eight.
Virginia is reeling. The Cavaliers have lost three in a row and five of their last seven. If Miami can earn a victory, it would virtually assure them of an NCAA Tournament berth. Miami and Virginia are tied for sixth in the ACC. A win would also greatly improve their seeding in the conference tournament.
The Hurricanes only win over a team that is an NCAA lock was over North Carolina at the Watsco Center last month. Virginia Tech is likely on the right side of the bubble at this point. The Hokies are listed as a ninth seed in the latest bracket matrix composite bracketology.
Virginia will pose a great challenge for the Hurricanes but also a incredible opportunity. The Cavaliers are currently 15th in latest RPI. They have two wins over Louisville who is fourth in the RPI (albeit the Cardinals were missing two starters and a key reserve in the second game).
Virginia’s also has wins this season against Notre Dame who is 26th in the RPI and Virginia Tech. Despite their high rating in the RPI, the Cavaliers two wins against Louisville are their only ones this season against teams in the top 25 in the RPI. They are 2-4 overall against teams in the RPI top 25.
The Cavaliers have failed to top 62 points in four of their last seven games. They have been especially abysmal in their last two games on the offensive end. Virginia lost 65-55 at home to Duke last Wednesday and then were throttled 65-41 at North Carolina Saturday night.
Virginia coach Tony Bennett commented on his offense after the game Saturday:
"“Offensively, we’ve struggled,…It’s no mystery we don’t score a ton inside, so when we’re missing some perimeter shots – some were pretty good shots – that puts a lot of pressure on us defensively.”"
Miami returns home to play a red hot and healthy Duke on Saturday. The Blue Devils struggled with injuries early in the season, but now have their full roster. That includes the return of Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski who missed time last month with back problems.
The Blue Devils have won eight in a row and nine of their last ten. That includes the win at Virginia last week, a win over North Carolina earlier this month and a win at Notre Dame. The Blue Devils are 3-3 against the top 25 and 5-1 against teams 26-50.
By contrast, Miami is 1-4 against teams in the top 25 in the RPI and 1-3 against teams 26-50. Duke is 3-3 in true road games. Their losses came at Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech.
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The Cardinals and Seminoles are going to be top four protected seeds in the NCAA Tournament and the loss to the Hokies came in the ACC opener when Duke was not a full strength.
A win over Duke would look incredibly impressive to the committee. If Miami can win two of their last four, they would be in the tournament.
Other than the win over Duke, Virginia Tech also has a win over UVA. The Hurricanes are currently a game and a half ahead of the Hokies in the ACC Standings.
Virginia Tech is 35th in the RPI. They are 2-4 against teams one to 25 in the RPI and 0-2 against teams 26-50. Both the Hokies and Hurricanes appear to be on the right side of the bubble for now.
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If Miami can get a season sweep of the Hokies that will show a lot to the committee in what will likely be two teams to be discussed significantly in just over two weeks in Indianapolis.
Florida State is having its best season in nearly 30 years. The 1989 Seminoles went 22-8 in the old Metro Conference that included their ACC Rivals Louisville and Virginia Tech. That is also the last season that the Seminoles finished the season a single digit losses.
Florida State has one of the biggest, deepest and most talented rosters in the country. The Seminoles two leading scorers are expected to be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft in June.
Johathan Issac is a 6’10 225 forward that is expected to be a lottery pick. Dwayne Bacon leads the the Seminoles in scoring at 16.8 points per game and at 6’7 can play both wing positions.
Florida State is likely to be a two or three seed in the NCAA Tournament next month. They are 5-1 against teams 1-25 and 4-1 against teams 26-50. The Seminoles are only 3-3 against teams 51-100. Their bad losses were at Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Georgia Tech and to Temple who is ranked 105th in the RPI at the Barclay’s center in Brooklyn.
The Seminoles have been up and down in ACC play. Miami caught them earlier this month after their back to back losses to the Yellow Jackets and Orange. FSU outscored Miami 44-23 in the second half in a 75-57 win at the Watsco Center.
That began a three game winning streak when they added wins over Notre Dame and Louisville. The Seminoles have struggled in their last two games with losses at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. FSU hosts Boston College and travels to Duke and Clemson before they host the Hurricanes in the final game of the regular season.
NCAA administrators that make up the 2017 Tournament committee will likely have their eyes on each of Miami’s last four games. The Hurricanes are likely in the tournament the way things stand now. A four game losing streak is possible and could potentially be devastating to Miami’s hopes of a making a second straight NCAA Tournament.
Next: Miami Hurricanes Get Crucial Win over Clemson
Miami made three straight NCAA Tournaments under Leonard Hamilton from 1998-2000. He is the only coach is school history to lead the Hurricanes to back to back NCAA Tournaments. One win should get the Hurricanes in, two would almost be a guarantee as Jim Larranaga continues to add highly ranked recruiting classes.