Miami Hurricanes Football Week 4 Preview: Nebraska

Game Details

Miami Hurricanes (2-1, 0-0 ACC) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten)

Saturday, September 20, 8 pm, ESPN2

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE

Line: Nebraska -7.5

Passing Offense vs. Nebraska

Sep 13, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) throws a pass against the Arkansas State Red Wolves during the first half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a little hard to get a read on how good this Nebraska defense is as a whole because of the competition they’ve played, but so far so good for the Cornhuskers. They rank second in the nation at yards per pass allowed (3.8!!!!) and 17th in yards per game. Even adjusted for opponent this is very good—the Huskers come in at 10th in the nation in Football Outsiders S&P+ rankings. The good news is that I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that Nebraska played horrible, horrible teams. Their escape act against FCS squad McNeese State was well chronicled, but FAU and Fresno State may be worse than McNeese.

Looking at specific guys on this defense, Nebraska lost a lot from its solid secondary in 2013. SS Corey Cooper was the best player in the secondary by a country mile last year and he’s back, but Nebraska said goodbye their free safety and both starting corners. While early returns have been good, Miami should definitely try to test Nebraska’s green corners with throws down the field. Stacy Coley returning will be big for Miami and Phil Dorsett will look to continue his stellar play. Miami’s receivers are so good that if they have time, they’ll get open.

Unfortunately, they may not have time. Nebraska’s pass rush is explosive and my biggest concern in this game for Miami’s offense. DE Randy Gregory is the name you should know. He was the best player on the defensive line last year and he’s back and better than ever. Nebraska lost the rest of its defensive front to graduation, but they haven’t missed a beat so far this year. That said, if Miami can contain Gregory (much easier said than done), Kaaya will probably have a decent amount of time to throw the ball. We’ll see how much Coley decides to open up the playbook.

Key Matchup: Randy Gregory vs. The right side of Miami’s line

Just typing those words scared the living daylights out of me. Looks like I’m not sleeping tonight.

Rushing Offense vs. Nebraska

Sep 6, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) runs against Florida A&M Rattlers defense during the first half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska has been good here as well, but not nearly as dominant as their passing attack. The Huskers rank 34th in S&P+ rushing defense (again, that’s adjusted for opponent) and 44th in YPC allowed at 3.4. That said, I think Miami can do some work here. As I mentioned, the Cornhuskers lost their entire defensive line aside from the beastly Gregory, so if the ‘Canes run the opposite direction from him Duke could get going. Unfortunately, the linebacking corps returns all of its 2013 starters and it’s a good unit—David Santos, Michael Rose and Zaire Anderson will all pose major challenges in the rushing and passing games for Miami.

On the Hurricanes’ side, it again comes down to the right side of the offensive line. While I imagine Coley is going to keep most of the rushing game on the left, Gadbois and Isidora will still need to pull their weight. Things looked better against Arkansas State, but this is the big time now. I’m at least confident that this won’t look worse than the Louisville game, but if Miami’s offense performs like it did against the Cardinals, they’ll have no chance because of the Cornhuskers’ scary offense (hey, look at that segue!).

Key Matchup: Still Randy Gregory vs. The right side of Miami’s line

I’m still shaking typing that out.

Passing Defense vs. Nebraska

Sep 13, 2014; Fresno, CA, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (4) throws a touchdown pass against the Fresno State Bulldogs in the fourth quarter at Bulldog Stadium. The Cornhuskers defeated the Bulldogs 55-19. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Believe it or not, Nebraska ranks 34 spots behind Miami in offensive S&P+ rankings. At least that’s something we can hang our collective hat on! I probably will live to regret these words, but Nebraska’s passing offense doesn’t scare me too much. Yeah, Tommy Armstrong is averaging better than 9.5 YPA, but the competition has been poor and he’s completed just over half of his passes. In a much bigger sample size last year, he finished with that same pedestrian completion percentage and a decent-not-great 7.4 YPA. This included games against juggernauts like South Dakota State, Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern. Not exactly a murderer’s row of talent there.  Jordan Westerkamp and Kenny Bell are back and dangerous at receiver—through three games they’ve combined for 23 catches, 485 yards (!!!) and three TDs. Opponent caveats apply, but damn somebody better cover those guys.

Where Miami could really blow up this attack is in its pass rush. The Hurricanes have been refreshingly decent in that department so far, even against Louisville. Nebraska had to replace all five of its starting offensive lineman from 2013 (all five!) and if the ‘Canes can get to Armstrong, which I think they’ll be able to do with some consistency, that heavily mitigates the scary talent of Westerkamp and Bell.

Key matchup: Westerkamp and Bell vs. The defensive secondary

While many saw the secondary as the strength of the defense going into this year, it’s been underwhelming to say the least. If the DBs can step up and find a way to keep Westerkamp and Bell to modest statistics, Miami has a really good chance of keeping Nebraska’s offense to a modest output.

Rushing Defense vs. Nebraska

Do I have to talk about Ameer Abdullah or can we just blissfully pretend he doesn’t exist? I have to talk about him? Okay, fine. I’ll start by putting this here:

Ameer Abdullah is a top five back in college football and he is going to get his. It’s hard to not see him going over 100 yards against this Miami defense, but honestly, there’s hope, people. The ‘Canes have been downright good against the run this year. Some opponent caveats apply to that, but Arkansas State and Louisville both have decent rushing attacks. Combine that with Nebraska’s green offensive line and I don’t think Abdullah goes nuclear in this game. He’s going to make plays and there will be missed tackles. I’ve accepted that and you should too. But overall, I think Miami can keep him to an adequate output. Armstrong can also run himself, but the ‘Canes have done well against running quarterbacks in two straight weeks. My optimism level in this defense is scaring me.

Key matchup: Miami’s defense vs. Missed tackles

With the young offensive line, Miami should be able to get to Abdullah regularly, but they’ll have to wrap him up on the first chance they get unless they want nightmares of him darting into the open field for the rest of the season.

Special Teams

For Nebraska, freshman Drew Brown continues the Nebraska tradition of always having a very solid kicker. He’s 4-for-5 with a long of 44 and 17-for-17 on extra points this year. Sam Foltz handles the punting duties spectacularly; he’s averaged better than 47 yards per punt on 13 boots with a long of 61. On kickoffs and and punts, I would highly advise Miami to keep it away from DeMornay Pierson-El. He’s already taken a punt back to the house this year.

On the Miami side, things are scary this week. Matt Goudis is out again, so don’t expect many field goal attempts. Miami will probably have to go for it on fourth down in some sub-optimal situations tomorrow night. This is a really unfortunate loss in a big game. On the plus side, Justin Vogel continues to be a pleasant surprise, still at 46 yards per punt with 11 punts under his belt. On the return side, we’ll see if Stacy Coley is back on those duties or if Golden sticks with Berrios to avoid further injury.

Key matchup: Do we have a kicker?

Pretty scary. Pretty scary indeed.

Three Offensive Keys To Victory

1. Run the ball away from Randy Gregory.

2. Open up the playbook! Hopefully the coaches learned from the Louisville game and the offense will look like it did last week in terms of play calling.

3. Pray to whatever deity you follow tonight that the right side of the offensive line holds up.

Three Defensive Keys To Victory

1. Lock down Westerkamp and Bell. That’s easier said than done, but there’s a huge drop-off after that in receiver quality.

2. Tackle Abdullah on first contact. Again, easier said that done, but Miami cannot let him get into the open field.

3. Take advantage of a green offensive line. An array of blitzes could pay off nicely tomorrow night.

Prediction Time

• The atmosphere gets to Kaaya a little bit and he looks shaky, at least at first
• Abdullah has at least one long touchdown after a very frustrating broken tackle or two
• Duke Johnson reaches the 100-yard mark before the end of the third quarter
• Nebraska wins, 27-21