Miami Hurricanes Game 9 Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels
By Harry Kroll
Miami rolls into Sun Life Stadium coming off its best game of the Al Golden era against the resurgent-but-still-flawed North Carolina Tar Heels as two-touchdown favorites. While Miami is obviously no stranger to awful letdowns in conference play, it’s hard to not be incredibly confident about this Homecoming matchup.
Game Details
North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4, 2-2 ACC) vs. Miami Hurricanes (5-3, 2-2 ACC)
Saturday, November 1, 12:30 pm, ESPN3 nationally, CBS locally
Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Line: Miami -14.5
Passing Offense vs. North Carolina
Oct 23, 2014; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Brad Kaaya (15) on the field before the game at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll state it plainly—North Carolina’s defense is incredibly bad and certainly the weakest unit Miami faces in ACC play. The traditional statistics are incredibly ugly for this unit and the advanced stats aren’t huge fans either; the Tar Heels rank 93rd in the country in defensive S&P+, which accounts for strength of schedule and evaluates teams on a per play basis with garbage time excluded. Looking at traditional statistics, UNC gives up 302 yards per game through the air, putting them at 119th in the country. (Not a typo.) This defense isn’t quite as bad as Cincinnati’s, but it’s close. This team managed to give up 235 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to Georgia Tech (?!?!?). Justin Thomas averaged better than 13 yards per pass that game. I swear I’m not making this up.
One of the main reasons UNC struggles so much to defend the pass is because its defensive line can’t generate much of a pass rush. The Tar Heels have just 13 sacks total this entire season, fewer than two per game. This really benefits a Miami offensive line looking to pick up the pieces after losing key LT Ereck Flowers, likely for the rest of the season. (I have a #source on this, but I’ve been steered wrong before so I won’t make any definitive declarations. Just know the sense within the program is that he won’t be back this year.) Seeing how Al Golden and James Coley piece together an offensive line will be the biggest thing I look for in this game. True freshman Trevor Darling figures to get first crack at RT after John Feliciano flips back to the left side. While he was a highly touted recruit and has a lot of talent, stepping in to the offensive line as a freshman is incredibly difficult and this should be somewhat of an adventure. Nick Linder is the exception, not the rule in how well he’s played this year as a true freshman at LG.
Regardless, I’m not too worried about offensive line play in this game simply because North Carolina’s defense is so inept. As long as Kaaya doesn’t turn the ball over—and he didn’t against a very good VT defensive unit that Miami rolled over last week—he’s going to put up some shiny numbers. Expect Dorsett to get over the top for a deep ball at least once or twice against a much-maligned secondary.
Rushing Offense vs. North Carolina
Oct 4, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) runs the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Similarly, Miami is going to have a lot of fun on the ground so long as the offensive line holds up adequately, which I expect they will (at least against UNC). After last week’s career performance against a good defense, Duke Johnson now stands at an absurd 7.5 yards per carry on the season. That honestly could go up after playing Carolina. The Tar Heels give up 211 yards per game on the ground, 109th in the nation. If you thought Miami struggled against Georgia Tech’s rushing attack, take solace in the fact that we’re not North Carolina, which gave up 376 rushing yards (again, not a typo) and almost eight per carry. This should be an incredibly good day on the ground for Miami.
I went into the ‘Canes offensive line situation in the above category, so let’s talk about the running back rotation now. Just when it seemed that Gus Edwards was down and out, James Coley went with Gus the Bus as the number two back in Blacksburg last week to tremendous results; he carried the ball 20 times for 115 yards (5.8 per carry). I still think Yearby is a better back and the long-term answer when Duke inevitably leaves for the NFL after this season, but it was nice to see Gus have a breakout game in what has been a tough season for him personally. I’ll also be watching the running back rotation closely on Saturday to see if Gus or Joe seems to have an edge at being the second back behind Duke.
Passing Defense vs. North Carolina
Oct 25, 2014; Charlottesville, VA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams (12) throws the ball against the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
While Miami’s defense has made major strides this year, especially in the passing game, UNC’s offense is not Virginia Tech (and by that I mean it’s pretty good). UNC ranks 24th in passing offense S&P+ behind mobile quarterback Marquise Williams. Statistically, Williams has been quite good in 2014, completing 63% of his passes for 7.5 YPA at 17 touchdowns to seven picks. He can also use his legs to great effect, leading the Tar Heels in rushing (more on that next). Williams is the Tar Heels offense and the unit lives and dies with him. His most impressive performance of the season came on the road against a very solid Notre Dame defense as he threw for over 300 yards and ran for 132 on just 18 carries in 50-43 loss.
As you’d expect with a statistically good quarterback throwing to them, UNC’s receivers have very good numbers and this is a talented group. Ryan Switzer leads the team in catches with 35 (!!) while picking up 456 yards (13 yards per catch) and three touchdowns. The most dangerous guy in the receiving corps is sophomore Mack Hollins, who has 26 grabs, but averages better than 21 yards per catch and has seven touchdowns. Quinshad Davis is still around as well as he has 23 catches for 299 yards and four scores.
Overall, this passing attack is going to test a resurgent Miami passing defense that has allowed just 171 passing yards per game, ninth in the entire country. While that’s an impressive number, we’ll find out in the next two games (with Florida State looming after the Tar Heels) if it’s for real.
Rushing Defense vs. North Carolina
Oct 18, 2014; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back T.J. Logan (8) scores the winning touchdown with 11 seconds left in the game. The Tar Heels defeated the Yellow Jackets 48-43 at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Marquise Williams is again the guy to watch here. UNC’s rushing distribution is roughly as follows: Williams 35%, T.J. Logan 20%, Elijah Hood 20%, Romar Morris 15%, Everyone Else 10%. Williams averages an impressive 4.6 yards per carry with sacks included. Take out the 14 times he’s been sacked this year and that number is well above 5 yards per carry. The running back production is not particularly impressive though—the BEST yards per carry from any back with at least 10 touches is 4.1 from T.J. Logan. Hood and Morris both average just 3.6 yards per carry.
For a rushing defense that has been quite good against any team not named Georgia Tech or Nebraska (and that is pretty understandable in my book), I’m pretty confident. While UNC should have a pretty good day through the air, I like Miami’s chances to hold down this rushing attack. Williams will find ways to extend plays and drives with his feet from time to time, but I don’t see this rushing attack consistently moving down the field against Miami’s front seven. (Yep, like I say pretty much every week, I will probably live to regret those words.)
Special Teams
Sophomore Nick Weiler handles the kicking duties for UNC, but not particularly well. He’s 5-for-5 from inside 30 yards but 0-for-3 past that. Suffice it to say that the Tar Heels will probably go for it on fourth down over kicking a 40-yard field goal. The punter is senior Tommy Hibbard, who averages a solid 41 yards per punt on 35 boots. Ryan Switzer returns punts and averages just 4 yards per return; he’s yet to break a long one for a touchdown this year. Also yet to break free for a return touchdown: kickoff returners T.J. Logan and Romar Morris, who average 25 and 22 yards per return, respectively.
For Miami, I think it’s probably time to pull Stacy Coley off return duties. He never seemed to recover mentally from a painful, lingering shoulder injury and I would be interested to see what Braxton Berrios can do in his stead. I have no inside information on this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden tested out some other options in the return game this week.
Three Keys to Victory
1. Keep contain on Marquise Williams. Him making things happen with his feet is the most sure-fire way for UNC to get its ground game going against a good Miami front.
2. NO TURNOVERS. This is obviously always critical, but in a game where UNC won’t be able to stop Miami more than once or twice without turnovers, it’s even more critical. UVA lost to Carolina last week because of a couple killer interceptions.
3. Pray that the offensive line holds up. Whether Darling or someone else steps in, it’s going to be a significant downgrade from the steady Flowers.
Prediction Time
There will certainly be a lot of points at Sun Life Stadium on Saturday afternoon, but in the end I don’t think UNC can score enough to keep up with its sieve of a defense playing Miami’s vaunted offensive attack. I think this line is a little high and wouldn’t go with the Hurricanes laying two touchdowns if I were a betting man, but Miami definitely should win this game without too much trouble.