ACC Coastal Madness Week 12: Is FSU-Miami a Coastal Elimination Game for the Canes?

Each week, from now until it becomes trivial to do so, I’ll break down where Miami stands in the ACC Coastal Division and how they can reach the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. The post will include a breakdown of the relevant teams to Miami’s Coastal hopes and a rooting guide for Miami fans for the upcoming week.

Another week, another tough day in the Coastal for Miami fans. First, here’s a quick reminder of the tiebreaker scenarios involving the Miami Hurricanes, listed from most to least likely, before we dive into the three relevant teams in the Coastal race:

• If Miami and Duke tie, Miami wins the Coastal by head to head tiebreaker.
• If Miami, Duke and GT all tie, Miami wins the Coastal by intra-division winning percentage.
• If Miami and GT tie, GT wins the Coastal by head to head tiebreaker.

Now, a breakdown of the three relevant teams—also listed from most likely to least likely—with a chance to represent the Coastal in Charlotte:

Duke (4-1)

Last week: I may be biased as a Miami fan, but Duke’s run of luck the past couple years is unbelievable. Not only do the Blue Devils have a cakewalk of an ACC schedule, but they caught Syracuse with their third- and fourth-string quarterbacks last Saturday in a 27-10 win at the Carrier Dome that was actually tied 10-10 deep in the second half.

Remaining ACC schedule: Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Duke will spend the remaining three weeks of the season in Durham against opponents that are okay at best. It’s certainly possible that the Blue Devils could lose two of these games, but that’s asking for a lot. At the same time, Duke has looked quite pedestrian even in its recent wins and it’s hard to see them running the table even though they’ll be favorites in each of these games, although anything worse than 2-1 would be a pleasant surprise. Miami—at worst—needs to finish tied atop the Coastal with Duke to head to Charlotte, so they’ll have to hope the Blue Devils cough up one or more of these games.

Miami (3-2)

Last week: Bye

Remaining ACC schedule: Florida State, at Virginia, Pittsburgh

I’ll address the question I asked in my click-bait headline now: is the Florida State game this weekend a Coastal elimination game for Miami? Mathematically, maybe (see the GT section). Practically, I think it is. Miami will be grasping for straws if it needs Duke to finish the season 1-2. On the other hand, if Miami wins and subsequently beats two heavy underdogs, the Hurricanes will only need one slip from Duke to win the Coastal. We’ll know more about this before kickoff of Miami-FSU—Duke and GT both play at noon—but Miami will have a heavy uphill battle and will need significant help if it falls to FSU on Saturday night.

Georgia Tech (5-2)

Last week: After trashing Virginia at home two weeks ago, the Yellow Jackets went on the road to deliver another impressive beatdown, this time 56-23 over NC State.

Remaining ACC schedule: Clemson

Like I mentioned, there’s a chance Miami could mathematically need to win out in order to qualify for the ACC Championship Game. That scenario comes to fruition if Georgia Tech upsets Clemson at Bobby Dodd Stadium this weekend, which is hardly likely but definitely possible. In that scenario, Miami would be in the unique position of needing to win out and have Duke finish precisely 2-1 the rest of the way in order to set up a 3-way Coastal tie at 6-2. GT is still the least likely of this group to head to Charlotte because they would need to beat Clemson (a tall task) and watch Duke find a way to lose two games the rest of the way. A lot needs to go the Yellow Jackets’ way.

This Weekend’s Rooting Guide

Teams Miami fans should be pulling for are bolded. All games of importance in the Coastal race are on Saturday this week. I included the Las Vegas lines, but note I wrote this up Sunday night and the lines will likely change to some degree before Saturday.

Clemson (-2.5) at Georgia Tech, Noon, ESPN

Virginia Tech at Duke (-6.5), Noon, ESPNU

Florida State (-2.5) at Miami, 8, ABC