Miami Hurricanes Football Game 10 Preview: Florida State

After two agonizing weeks of waiting, Florida State-Miami is finally tomorrow. Can Al Golden pick up his first signature win? Can the ‘Canes finally be the team to put a pretty lucky undefeated squad into the loss column? (To any FSU fans reading this: that’s NOT to say Florida State isn’t one of the best teams in the country.) We find out tomorrow night.

Game Details

Florida State Seminoles (9-0, 6-0 ACC) vs. Miami Hurricanes (6-3, 3-2 ACC)

Saturday, November 15, 8 pm, ABC

Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Line: FSU -2.5

Passing Offense vs. Florida State

Obviously, the passing offense starts with the quarterback and everyone wants to talk about Brad Kaaya in this game. I’ll get to him in a second, but I want to talk about something else first: the Miami offensive line. After being listed as probable on Thursday’s injury report, it remarkably appears that Ereck Flowers will suit up and play tomorrow night. That clearly doesn’t mean he’s 100% and just how healthy he is will be a major key to the ‘Canes chances in this game. The good news for Miami? Florida State’s pass rush isn’t particularly prolific and there are really only a couple of guys this generally solid offensive line will have to consistently account for: DT Eddie Goldman and Jack (hybrid DE/OLB in a 3-4). Those two have combined for seven sacks this season while just one player on the rest of the roster has more than one.

Let’s talk about Kaaya, then. This will not be the best defense that Brad has faced this season—that distinction goes to Louisville. While we all remember how that went, Kaaya was shackled by circumstance—with it being the first game of his college career—and a poor offensive game plan from James Coley. (Who I am a huge fan of, for the record. That game was a letdown, but Coley generally has done excellent work in his nearly two years as Miami’s OC.) Florida State has most of its linebackers who were injured against Louisville back so it will be tougher sledding than what the Cardinals had to face, but I still think Kaaya has the ability to get it done against this defense. Expect FSU to stack the box early in an attempt to stop Duke Johnson and Miami’s prolific rushing attack (possibly a futile one, but we’ll get to that in a second) . If that’s the case, Kaaya may have to prove that he can consistently beat the Seminoles through the air for Miami’s ground game to get a chance to open up. While he’s been great at throwing the deep ball and making explosive plays down the field, Miami’s passing game has struggled to put together methodical drives and whether or not Kaaya can hit intermediate throws to keep the chains moving probably will decide which team wins this football game.

This is not a great passing defense. The ‘Noles rank 83rd in the nation (not a typo!) in passing yards allowed per game and as long as Kaaya doesn’t turn the ball over—cliches are cliches but this one is always critical—Miami should have success through the air.

Rushing Offense vs. Florida State

Duke Johnson and Miami’s rushing attack as a whole has been on a tear recently. Playing Cincinnati and North Carolina will certainly do that for you, but one guy running for almost 250 yards in Lane Stadium is quite a feat. Here’s some more good news for Miami: FSU ranks 91st (also not a typo!) in S&P+ rushing defense. While I imagine the Seminoles will load the box early in an attempt to make Kaaya prove he can beat them through the air like I mentioned in the previous section, it may not matter. Miami rushing attack is by far the best that FSU will face this season and the fact that the ‘Noles haven’t exactly held up well against their competition in that area so far could be telling. Looking at traditional statistics, FSU comes in 36th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game at 136. Knowing that, it seems quite realistic to think Miami can go for 200+.

Joe Yearby will be the second back for Miami and Gus Edwards will be available as well after recovering from his ankle injury enough to be available. But make no mistake—tomorrow night will be the Duke Johnson show. Duke is 0-2 against FSU and in all likelihood, this is his last chance to beat the Seminoles. A big game from Duke in front of the eyes of the nation and he probably gets an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony. And he won’t need a police cover-up to get there!

Passing Defense vs. Florida State

Here’s another simple factor that will swing the outcome of this football game: can Miami limit Jameis Winston? Many have tried and some have succeeded for stretches, but in the end all have failed. Not even the American justice system can touch this guy! (I promise that I’m really trying to limit these but it’s so hard.) However, it’s undeniable that Winston has looked far more human this year after losing a couple key targets from last year. Winston has tossed eleven picks this season, which is actually two more than Brad Kaaya (!!!!). He also averages fewer yards per attempt than Brad, coming in at 8.6 to Kaaya’s 9.0. Obviously, this is not to say that Brad Kaaya is better than Jameis Winston, but merely to show that Winston’s not quite as earth-shattering as his numbers last year suggested.

The key to stopping Winston is getting organic pressure with a four-man rush (or three when Miami aligns in a 3-4). While I’m not advocating for a completely blitz-free game plan tomorrow night, Winston is one of the most effective passers in the country against the blitz and in order to bring the house, Miami has to put its defensive backs on islands against FSU’s talented receiving corps. This is not ideal on a consistent basis, so it’s critically important that the defensive line generates some pressure by itself. So far this year, the defensive line has done a pretty good job of this and FSU’s offensive line is not invulnerable to giving up sacks—they’ve yielded 19 so far, just over two per game. If Tyriq McCord and Anthony Chickillo—Miami’s most consistent pass rushers by far this season—can gain traction, Miami has a chance of limiting Winston.

I used the word “limit” and not “stop” because stopping this passing attack is beyond even the best defense in the nation. Despite his inconsistent play at times this year and nightmarish behavior off of the field, Winston is still either the best quarterback in the country or second best, depending on what you think of Marcus Mariota. (You could make a case for Dak Prescott, but in my book he’s significantly behind the two I just mentioned.) He has a favorite target too—stud senior receiver Rashad Greene, who has hauled in an astonishing 71 passes for 989 yards and five scores. That’s more than double the number of catches of the next two targets for FSU: fellow WR Bobo Wilson (33 catches, 402 yards, 4 TDs) and tight end Nick O’Leary (33 catches, 364 yards, 2 TDs). Simply put, the combination of Winston and Greene is the best quarterback to wide receiver combination in the country. Artie Burns will likely receive the tall task of covering Greene, granted with oodles of safety help. He’s been held under 100 yards receiving just three times this season (ironically the Citadel and Wake Forest were two of those three, with Louisville being the other) and that’s a goal Miami has to shoot for tomorrow night. If the ‘Canes double-team and harass Greene all night (far easier said than done) and force FSU’s other receivers to beat them, Miami has a chance.

It’s worth mentioning that there is some buzz about a thumb injury that may hurt Winston’s accuracy. I doubt it will be too much of a factor, but it’s worth looking out for early in the game.

Rushing Defense vs. Florida State

FSU has suffered a multitude of injuries at the running back position this year, but it appears that all three of their key backs will at least play against Miami. Like with UM’s Ereck Flowers, no one outside of the program knows precisely how healthy they will be, but they’ll be out there. The rushing attack starts with Karlos Williams, a power back who mostly earns his yards between the tackles. Miami has actually been quite efficient at stopping this type of rushing this season and I like their chances of stopping Williams. This is no small task, but I’m more worried about freshman Dalvin Cook. Cook is another guy who will be playing through injury, but his tremendous speed on the outside is going to be a challenge for Miami’s defense. If FSU is going to get a few big plays on the ground, they will likely come from Cook as long as his ankle doesn’t slow him too much. Finally, Mario Pender will be back from injury. The sophomore missed the past three games but should get 5-10 carries against Miami.

This is the area where Miami’s defense can assert itself. While defending Jameis Winston’s passing attack is obviously important, he’s going to make things happen and all you can do is hope to somewhat limit him. If Miami can hold up against the run like it has in pretty much every game this season aside from Nebraska and Georgia Tech earlier this year and force FSU into third-and-longs, the ‘Canes can absolutely get enough stops to win this game. Will they do it? I’m not so sure, but I’m saying there’s a chance.

Special Teams

FSU’s kicker is the much ballyhooed sophomore Robert Aguayo, who is the best kicker in the country by quite a distance. He’s missed a grand total of two kicks in his entire career, standing at a career kicking mark of 37-for-39 and a perfect 135-for-135 on extra points. He can hit from deep too; he’s 4-for-4 from 50+ yards in his career. So just know that if this comes down to a game-winning field goal attempt for FSU, it’s probably not going wide right. The punter for the Seminoles is junior Cason Beatty, who averages a solid 42 yards per attempt. In the return game, sophomore receiver Kermit Whitfield takes most of the kickoffs, but he averages just 20 yards per return. Like Miami, FSU is yet to break a kickoff return for a touchdown. Same goes for punt returns, which Rashad Greene handles. He averages 10 yards per return.

Three Keys to Victory

1. Brad Kaaya has to hit intermediate throws and lead Miami down the field. If I were the Seminoles, my gameplan would be to load the box and have a safety deep at all times, forcing Miami to hit intermediate routes in order to move the ball. As good as the ‘Canes offense has been for most of the year, Miami hasn’t been very effective when forced to string together long drives. Also, NO TURNOVERS. But, like, duh.

2. Get pressure on Winston without blitzing too often. Winston is fantastic throwing against the blitz and the best way to limit him is with a solid pass rush up front while still having enough guys in coverage to force him into mistakes. Again, this is easier said than done.

3. Throw everyone you have at Rashad Greene. He’s one of the best receivers in the countries and there’s a drop-off the size of Niagara Falls between him and the next receiver for FSU. Just make someone else beat you. If they do, tip your cap, but doing everything you can to shut down Greene seems like Miami’s best pathway to defensive success.

Prediction Time

The advanced stats actually really like Miami in this game, with SB Nation’s Bill Connelly giving the ‘Canes a 61% chance of winning. I think the numbers are underestimating FSU’s chances for a couple of reasons. First, the numbers definitely ding the ‘Noles for their escape against Clemson, but FSU was playing without arguably the best player in the country in that game. Additionally, the percentage swings to a 58% chance of an FSU victory on a neutral field and the atmosphere Saturday night will probably be closer to a neutral site game than a dominating home field advantage. Add that up with everything I’ve written so far, and I like the Seminoles fairly narrowly. I feel gross doing this, but my job is to give you my objective opinion. Here it is:

FSU 34, Miami 24

I know this probably leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but I’ll have a post tomorrow that will get you fired up and feeling good about this game. I promise. Go ‘Canes.