Miami Hurricanes Basketball: Previewing the Illinois Game with Matt Silich of The Champaign Room

In advance of the Illinois game tonight, I emailed back and forth with my good friend and editor at the Illinois blog The Champaign Room, Matt Silich, about an assortment of topics related to the matchup. THIS IS PART TWO OF THE EXCHANGE, you can read the first half over on TCR by clicking here. I would advocate doing that because you’ll be jumping in on the middle of the conversation if you just start here. 

Harry: Florida has certainly struggled this year, but injuries have hurt the Gators in all of their losses and as they get healthy, Miami’s win will look a lot better than it actually was come March. However, I always thought the UF win was fairly fluky—UM shot 65% in the second half, including 70% from beyond the arc—and the most impressive performance to date was how the ‘Canes trashed the Charleston Classic. While Drexel, Akron and Charlotte aren’t world-beaters, Miami took care of those three by an average of 22.3 points and KenPom ranks all of them in the top 150. In short, this team is legitimately very good and the 7-0 record is no mirage.

That said, I don’t think the team is quite ready to truly compete for an ACC Championship this season. With Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina and Syracuse competing in this conference, a fifth or sixth place ACC finish and five or six NCAA Tournament would be a great accomplishment for this team. If things break right, I think that can happen, especially because Miami only has to play most of the ACC powers once this year. Like Illinois, Miami is developing a strong program under a coach who’s finally made the program his own and that is taking shape this season. This comes in in stark contrast to whatever the hell is going on with the goddamn football team under Al Golden’s watch. I’ve always scoffed at schools taking pride in being a “basketball school” because that’s essentially admitting your football program is irrelevant and being okay with that, but I may need to rethink my stance.

Matt: Yeah, Illinois is most certainly a basketball school. It’s kind of amazing to see the reactions from fans when Illinois hoops finishes in the NIT (mostly disappointment) compared to when Illinois football finishes in a low-tier bowl (mostly excitement). People have been complaining nonstop lately about coach John Groce’s “inability to close” on FIVE STAR RECRUITS. As if it’s an expectation of the program that all of these guys should be coming to Illinois over Kansas or Duke. Meanwhile, Illinois hasn’t even been considered by a five star football recruit in almost 10 years and few people are complaining about that.

Anyway, I think it’s clear that most sane fans support John Groce at the moment. His recruiting has been superb and he’s consistently roping in four star recruits. Eventually, a couple of five star players are going to fall into Illinois’ laps (one slightly lower-ranked five star just did recently) and then the sky is the limit for the basketball program. I haven’t seen quite enough yet of Groce at Illinois to have a strong opinion on his strategic/in-game coaching, but his defenses have been encouraging thus far. How do you feel about Larrañaga and the direction of the program? It seems like Miami trending significantly upwards, especially since few people expected them to be this good in 2014.

Harry: Miami hit an absolute home run when it hired Jim Larrañaga away from George Mason in 2011. Before you can understand just how good of a job he’s done here, you have to understand a couple things about the Miami basketball program. UM didn’t even have a program from 1971-1985, having dropped basketball all together. While the program had decent success after being reinstated, making the tournament five times since then before Coach L came around, it was clearly not on the national radar. Now, Larrañaga is really building something. And as a bonus, because he’s 65, he’s not going anywhere before he retires, likely in 2022 when his contract expires.

Coach L capitalized on the dream season from two years ago in recruiting—like you mentioned—of elite high school talent as well as JUCO and other transfers. The aforementioned Ja’Quan Newton is the best recruit Miami has ever snared out of high school. While he’s not pulling in consensus five stars, talent is coming. Unbelievably, this team should be even better in the second half of the season when two key cogs who have been sitting out (returning sophomore Davon Reed with an injury and JUCO transfer Ivan Cruz Uceda because of transfer rules) can finally take the court in January. Next year, all the key pieces are back and a year older for a potential ACC Championship run. I can honestly say that based on the past few years, there’s not a single coach in the entire country that Miami could realistically have hired who I would rather have than Coach L.

So, we’re over 2,000 words at this point, let’s wrap it up by addressing who wins the game tomorrow, as required by the Unwritten Rules of Blog Exchanges Section XII, Article 7.43. Your thoughts on how tonight plays out?

Matt: I fully expect tonight to be as good a game as advertised. Both offenses have been shooting the lights out from three point range, so there should be plenty of offense on tap. As for the match-up between the two, Illinois’ offense has been one of the best in the nation at avoiding turnovers this year, while Miami’s D hasn’t been very opportunistic in that regard. Illinois should be able to get a shot up on almost every possession. The Illini have had great ball movement this year (you could really see it against Baylor’s modified 2-3 zone), and I’m not sure Miami’s relatively average defense is going to be able to stop them on a consistent basis. On the other side of the ball, I expect Nnanna Egwu to control the inside, as we often does. Foul trouble could really doom the Illini in this regard, as the back-up fives are sub-par, but it’s unwise to bet on that happening in any one game. Illinois’ defense has risen to the occasion in the last few games and is now ranked above the offense per KenPom. Angel Rodriguez may have a good game going up against Ahmad Starks (the worst on defense of the five starters), but I think Illinois will be able to limit most of Miami’s other players. In summary, I expect Illinois to both cover the 3.5-point spread and win this game with a very close final score. Not because Miami isn’t good nor going places this year, but because I really believe in Illinois’ newfound offense and I’m just not sure about Miami’s (obviously, there’s bias here). How do you see this one shaping up?

Harry: I think that’s a perfectly reasonable opinion, but as a God-fearing man (note: religiously, this is not at all true), I’ve learned to trust the College Basketball God, Ken Pomeroy. He gives Miami a 66% chance of winning tonight by a projected score of 71-67. So I’ll take Miami, 71-67. I had a great time doing this exchange and I can’t wait to do it again when Miami takes on Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. (FEEL THE EXCITEMENT!!) You have a good basketball squad up in Champaign and I appreciated your reasoned analysis and opinions. I’m looking forward to what should be an excellent game that could go either way tonight. Or, in college sports fan language, your school sucks and you are a stupid idiot for going there. GO ‘CANES, BABY! ENJOY LOSING TONIGHT!