Miami Hurricanes Football Independence Bowl Preview: South Carolina
By Harry Kroll
We’re back for one more game before we can officially put the 2014 football season behind us. While the campaign didn’t go how any of us would have liked and this bowl game isn’t exactly the Orange Bowl, it’s still a chance to send out a group of seniors that deserves everyone’s full support out with a victory over an SEC team. Here’s the skinny: on paper, this is a game that Miami should win. However, on paper the ‘Canes certainly should have defeated Virginia and Pittsburgh too, so who knows. Here’s your full preview.
Game Details
Duck Commander Independence Bowl
Miami Hurricanes (6-6, 3-5 ACC) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Saturday, December 27, 3:30, ABC
Line: Miami -3.5
Passing Offense vs. South Carolina
South Carolina features one of the worst defenses that the ‘Canes will face this season and offense should be fun in this game. The Gamecocks rank an appalling 117th in Defensive F/+. Looking first at the passing game, Carolina surrendered 219 passing yards per game, good for 52nd in the country. However, that stat drastically overstates the competence of this pass defense. Looking at advanced stats, it comes in at 85th in Passing Defense S&P+. The biggest reason that this pass defense struggles so much is because of the lack of pass rush it generates. Carolina had just 12 sacks the entire season (!) and no single player had more than two. It’s incredibly difficult to ask your defensive backfield to hold up in coverage when the opposing quarterback has all day to find his targets. That should be the case for Brad Kaaya tomorrow.
Looking at the Miami side of things, there’s no reason to expect a letdown from this offense. While it certainly was not firing on all cylinders against UVA and Pitt, both of those defenses are significantly better than South Carolina’s. Expect an efficient day through the air for the ‘Canes, but I still think it will be relatively modest because…
Rushing Offense vs. South Carolina
…hoo boy, this rushing defense is HORRIBLE. Whether you look at advanced stats (117th in Rushing S&P+) or traditional ones (214 rushing yards allowed per game, 109th in the nation), you can gather the same conclusion. The problem again mostly rests with the porous defensive line. As it turns out, consistently getting pushed back at the point of attack is somewhat problematic for a defense! The player worth mentioning here is former University School standout Skai Moore, a linebacker who frequently looks like he’s by himself out there. Moore leads the team in tackles with 82 and has also picked up a sack and three interceptions. He’ll make some plays, but it won’t be enough for South Carolina to have a respectable day against Miami’s formidable rushing attack.
For Duke Johnson, it should be a great day as he rides off into the NFL sunset. (And make no mistake, he will be riding off into the NFL sunset after tomorrow.) Duke has accomplished all he personally could here at UM and it certainly won’t be the same without him next season, but tomorrow we have one last opportunity to cherish him running free in orange and green. Overall, it will be shocking if Miami can’t crack 200 yards rushing tomorrow and I think 250+ is a safe bet.
Passing Defense vs. South Carolina
As rough as the defense is, South Carolina boasts a quality offensive unit. Dylan Thompson is the quarterback for the Gamecocks and he put up solid—if unspectacular—numbers, completing 60% of his passes at 7.9 YPA. He tossed 24 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The receiver to look out for is stud sophomore Pharoh Cooper, who hauled in 60 passes for 966 yards and eight TDs. Carolina’s passing attack will be somewhat handicapped in this game however, as third-leading receiver Shaq Rolland left the team prior to this game with the intention of declaring for the NFL Draft. This is far from a death knell for this attack, but it bears watching.
For Miami, it will be critically important to avoid big plays. With the amount of points that the ‘Canes should put up, I wouldn’t mind calling a more conservative game and playing the D’Onofrio patented “bend but don’t break” defense that most fans hate. At least on paper, if Miami can hold South Carolina to about 30 points, this game should be a win.
Rushing Defense vs. South Carolina
Carolina ranks 58th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 169 rushing yards per game. The feature back for the Gamecocks is Mike Davis, who averaged 5 yards per carry on 186 touches this season. Behind him, there’s plenty of depth. Brandon Wilds and David Williams both picked up 5.7 yards per carry on a combined 146 carriers and the aforementioned receiver Pharoh Cooper picked up an explosive 8.3 yards per carry on 45 touches. All in all, while it’s not quite as prolific as Carolina’s passing attack, the ground game is solid with a stable of quality backs who can vary the pace and power of the unit.
Special Teams
The Gamecocks are solid at kicker, with sophomore Elliot Fry knocking through 17 of his 22 field goal attempts and all 48 extra point tries this season. He doesn’t have the deepest range, however, as all of his misses came from beyond 40 yards and he was 0-for-2 on kicks longer than 50 yards. The punter is senior Tyler Hull, who averaged a decent 41 yards per boot on 38 punts. Miami will have to be careful in punt coverage as Cooper returns those for Carolina, but he averaged 5.6 yards for return and didn’t break one for a touchdown. The Gamecocks’ kickoff return is similarly underwhelming, with junior RB Shon Carson averaging 20 yards per return with no touchdowns.
Three Keys To Victory
1. Don’t play apathetically. This is a game that Miami should win, but the same can be said for the Virginia and Pittsburgh games. In the wake of the heartbreaking loss to Florida State, a letdown was probably inevitable, but it better be over by now.
2. Avoid turnovers. This is true for any game, but especially tomorrow. South Carolina simply does not have the horses on defense to stay with Miami and the only way that the ‘Canes won’t put a shiny number on the scoreboard is if they beat themselves offensively.
3. Lock down Pharoh Cooper. This is easier said than done, but if Miami throws the kitchen sink at him and forces other guys to beat them in the passing game, that should be enough to win the game. Carolina has a good offense and will put up points, but with the Gamecocks’ leaky defense, all Miami really needs to do is limit Carolina to the 28-34 point range to win. As long as Cooper doesn’t go off, that seems doable.
Prediction Time
I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but this is a matchup that Miami should win. Outside of Skai Moore, it’s hard to see Carolina having any answers for the ‘Canes offense and I think the defense will get enough stops for the ‘Canes to win and cover the spread.