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Miami Hurricanes Basketball: Bubble Watch, February 10

By Harry Kroll

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Believe it or not, we’re less than six weeks away from Selection Sunday and with Miami sitting directly on the bubble, I’ll drop these Bubble Watch posts each week to give you as best of an idea as we have on where the ‘Canes stand. I’ll also look at the rest of the ACC and the upcoming week for Miami. Look for this feature each Tuesday from here on out. 

Team Snapshot

  • Record: 15-8 (5-5 ACC)
  • RPI: 54
  • SOS: 43
  • Home record: 8-5
  • Road record: 4-2
  • Neutral record: 3-1
  • vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
  • vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
  • Signature wins: @ Duke
  • Bad losses: Eastern Kentucky, Georgia Tech

Miami has a very standard bubble resume despite the highs and lows of the season. Not finding a way to pull out even one close game against the likes of Virginia, Notre Dame and Louisville hurts, as the ‘Canes could really use a second signature win. Luckily, they’ll get at least two more chances to do so with a trip to Louisville and a home game against North Carolina looming on the schedule, as well as the ACC Tournament after that.

Bracketology Standing

Miami does seem to be on the correct side of the bubble for now, which is encouraging.

The Upcoming Week

  • Wednesday, 7, ESPN3: at Wake Forest (11-13, 3-8 ACC, RPI 153)
  • Sunday, 6:30, ESPNU: at Boston College (9-13, 1-9 ACC, RPI 133)

There’s no other way to put this: Miami MUST win both of these games. While Winston-Salem has been a house of horrors for the ‘Canes in the past and Boston College came terrifyingly close to leaving the BUC with a win earlier this year, these are both teams significantly outside of the RPI Top 100 and UM needs to take care of business. Win these, and Miami has a chance to improve to 8-5 in the ACC with a home game against completely hapless Virginia Tech before a trip to Louisville.

Around the ACC

Locks: 

  • Virginia (21-1, 9-1 ACC, RPI 3)
  • Duke (21-3, 8-3 ACC, RPI 4)

To clarify, a lock means that a team could lose the rest of its games and still make the tournament. These are the only two in the ACC that fit that mold right now, but the three in the next category are getting very close.

Sitting Pretty:

  • North Carolina (18-6, 8-3 ACC, RPI 10)
  • Notre Dame (22-4, 10-3 ACC, RPI 26)
  • Louisville (19-4, 7-3, RPI 12)

This is the cutoff point where things get dicey for the ACC. For a conference that looked like it might send seven or eight teams dancing, the stark reality right now is that it’s quite likely no more than six teams get in.

Bubble In:

  • Miami (15-8, 5-5 ACC, RPI 54)

Bubble Burst:

None

Gasping For Air:

  • Clemson (14-10, 6-6 ACC, RPI 76)
  • NC State (14-10, 5-6 ACC, RPI 64)
  • Pittsburgh (16-8, 5-5 ACC, RPI 63)

After Clemson’s loss to Miami on Sunday, the Tigers desperately needed to knock off Notre Dame at home last night and couldn’t quite pull it off. With no signature wins, things look bleak. For NC State and Pittsburgh, who also have similar records as Miami, the problem is a lack of an eye-popping win. While NC State did beat Duke, that was at home in a fairly close one and they’ve done nothing else of note, with losses to Wofford and Wake Forest. Pittsburgh did beat Notre Dame at home, but also has done nothing else worth mentioning. Both of them need to raise their RPIs to the mid-50’s to have a chance.

Maybe Next Year:

  • Florida State
  • Wake Forest
  • Virginia Tech
  • Georgia Tech
  • Boston College

Not even going to bother running down the records and RPIs for these guys. Florida State is the only team in this group that even has a chance of making the NIT.

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