ESPN’s Football Power Index Predicts Miami Hurricanes Should go 11-1
The ESPN Football Power Index is predicting that the Miami Hurricanes will finish the 2017 season 11-1. Their lone loss according to the FPI will be to Florida State in week three. The FPI has the Hurricanes 13th overall in their rankings.
The FPI is explained by ESPN as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
The FPI isn’t just expecting the Hurricanes to be one of the nation’s elite teams, they also seem to expect them to be one of its most dominant. The Hurricanes are given at least a 62 percent chance to win every game except the Florida State game. The Seminoles are given an 83 percent chance to win the September 16 matchup.
In their non-conference games against Bethune-Cookman, at Arkansas State and against Toledo, the FPI gives UM 99 and 90 percent chances to win. The Hurricanes are at 65 percent versus Notre Dame at Hard Rock Stadium on Nov 11. The rest of their ACC Schedule plays out as follows.
- September 29 vs. Duke 75 percent
- October 12 vs. Georgia Tech 85 percent
- October 21 vs Syracuse 85 percent
- October 28 at North Carolina 62 percent
- November 4 vs Virginia Tech 76 percent
- November 18 vs Virginia 92 percent
- November 24 vs. Pittsburgh 69 percent
Miami is ranked third amongst ACC teams. Florida State is fifth and Clemson tenth in the FPI. Louisville is the only other ACC team in the top 25 at 16. The rest of Miami’s opponents excluding FCS Bethune-Cookman are ranked:
- September 9 at Arkansas State tied for 47
- September 23 Toledo 17
- September 29 vs. Duke 86
- October 12 vs. Georgia Tech 65
- October 21 vs Syracuse tied for 78
- October 28 at North Carolina 50
- November 4 vs Virginia Tech tied for 32
- November 11 vs Notre Dame 29
- November 18 vs Virginia 99
- November 24 vs. Pittsburgh 73
On the surface, the Hurricanes schedule doesn’t seem difficult other than Florida State. Miami’s other ACC crossover this season is Syracuse.
Toledo is likely to be a team the fans and media underrate. They are only four spots behind Miami in the rankings at 17. Like the Hurricanes, the Rockets will be favored in every game but one.
They are solid favorites in most of those games. Their lowest chance to win in their other games is a 61 percent chance against Tulsa.
North Carolina has owned the Hurricanes the last two seasons. They escaped the Rock in 2016 with a 20-13 win. The Hurricanes return to Keenan Stadium in Chapel Hill after getting crushed 59-20 there two seasons ago.
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Miami gets Virginia Tech at home this season. The Hurricanes played their worst game of 2016 in Blacksburg. The Hokies beat up the Hurricanes 37-16 as UM was missing a few players with injuries in the Thursday night matchup.
Miami-Notre Dame is always a special game. The Fighting Irish’s visit to Hard Rock stadium this November marks their first visit to South Florida since the teams’ epic showdown at the end of the 1989 season.
The 2017 season should be an interesting one for Miami. The analytics continue to show that UM is expected to be among the nation’s best teams in 2017.
Next: Miami Hurricanes 2017 Top Ten Team Per Analytics
It’s been over ten years since Miami was among the nation’s best and challenging for a title. Mark Richt is quickly rebuilding the Hurricanes into one of the nation’s best programs. Now they have to prove it on the field.