ESPN has Lonnie Walker as one of most overrated players in NBA Draft
Lonnie Walker who left for the NBA after one season of playing basketball at Miami has been tabbed as one of the three most overrated players in the 2018 NBA Draft by ESPN Analytics.
Lonnie Walker is projected by most sites to be selected between 10th and 20th in the NBA Draft. He had a solid if not spectacular Freshmen season. Walker struggled early in the season after having surgery for a torn MCL last July.
Walker was supposed to be a part of an All-Star backcourt that included Miami’s other early entrant into the NBA Draft, Sophomore Bruce Brown. They never really got going together. Just as Walker was started to become completely healthy, Brown was lost at the end of January with season-ending foot surgery.
One the season Lonnie Walker averaged 11.5 Points Per game, 2.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists. He shot 41.5 percent from the floor, 34.6 percent from the field and 73.8 percent from the free throw line.
Having to become the alpha with Brown out for the season, Walker improved in ACC Play.
He averaged 13.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2,3 APG and 1.1 steals per game in conference play. Walker improved all three of his shooting percentages once Miami got into ACC play. He shot 41.3 from the floor, made 36.1 percent of his threes, 81.0 percent from the line against ACC opponents.
ESPN’s analytics model and analysis seem to be relying solely on statistics. Walker scored high on the agility and speed drills at the NBA Combine last month. His athleticism is his biggest strength and it’s what has NBA Scouts projecting Walker to likely be the highest draft pick in the modern era of Miami basketball.
Related Story: Miami basketball alum Lonnie Walker thrives in NBA combine speed drills
"“If our NBA draft model had emotions, it would be utterly perplexed by the consensus feeling on Walker as a borderline lottery candidate. Aside from the scouts’ evaluation of Walker, it sees no empirical evidence that suggests the former Miami guard ought to be selected that high.He ranks 62nd in the NCAA production model, with opponent-adjusted shooting and assist numbers that don’t move the needle. And he had no real impact on the boards. Our AAU model thinks he’s fine (rank: 25th) and his combine measurables don’t jump off the page (20th), so our overall model finds it hard to believe he should be drafted in the teens.”"
Other outlets have given Walker a mixed assessment. An article by The Ringer calls Walker one of the two biggest unknowns in the draft with Texas Tech Freshman Zhaire Smith. They seemed perplexed themselves about Walker’s career trajectory.
"“They could wind up being stars, or bust out of the league entirely.”"
Walker’s biggest criticisms have been his ball handling and shot selection. He had a true shooting percentage of 52.7 percent this season. The Ringer realized that numbers don’t always tell the truth. That’s significantly true when a player has to play through an injury. The Ringer took aim at ESPN draft analytics.
"“There are extenuating circumstances…The first is that he wasn’t close to healthy at the start of the season. He started in two of Miami’s first 15 games while recovering from a torn meniscus over the summer, and he averaged only 8.1 points per game in that stretch…He looked more explosive and more confident in his knee as the season went along.”"
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Brown’s injury took away the Hurricanes best playmaker at midseason. That was when Walker was just getting healthy. Without Brown, Walker often had to become the player to run the offense. The Ringer also discussed that.
"“The second extenuating circumstance was the composition of his team. Miami was overloaded with perimeter scorers, and they didn’t have a natural point guard. Sophomore combo guard Bruce Brown, the no. 39 overall prospect on The Ringer’s NBA Draft Board, was their best passer this season, and he went down with a broken foot in late January.Without Brown to distribute the ball, Miami alternated between two scoring guards (senior Ja’Quan Newton and freshman Chris Lykes) at the point, who combined to average 4.9 assists on 3.7 turnovers a game. The Hurricanes really struggled to move the ball: They were no. 215 in the country in assists (13.5 per game) and no. 38 in turnovers (11.5).”"
Walker finished with a 1.64-1 assist to turnover ratio. He only finished fifth on the team with 61 assists. That was despite frequently having the ball in his hands when Brown went out for the season.
Brown nearly led Miami in total assists for the season despite missing the last 13 games. He finished with 76. Newton had 84 in 13 more games.
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As a team, the Hurricanes had 424 assists and 367 turnovers. That’s a 1.15 to one assist to turnover ratio. Point guards strive for a two to one assist to turnover ratio. Brown was fairly close to that. He committed just 43 turnovers. That gave him a 1.76 to one assist to turnover ratio.