Multiple Reasons Miami football is favored over Florida State
What are the oddsmakers saying?
The first question posed by the Florida State writer was “Vegas is right way more times than not. However, I can’t fathom why they have Miami as such a big betting favorite in 2018?”
Where do we even begin with this question? It’s so extremely open-ended that it screams fanboy more than a writer with any credentials or the ability to see the larger picture and have some sort of objectivity.
The first thing that needs to be done is an explanation of how the betting process works. When a point-spread on a game is made it’s not who the bookmakers believe will win and by how many.
The gambling website Odds Shark has an industry definition of what a point-spread is.
"“A number oddsmakers use as a median between two teams or sides in an effort to generate betting interest on both of them. Favorites need to give “chalk” bettors the right number of points to generate enough interest to back them while underdogs should not be such long shots that “dog” players refuse to try their luck with them."
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The point spread that is chosen for any game has little to do with which teams the bookmakers think is better. It’s more a perception of a number that they think will generate equal wagers on each side for both teams playing in a game.
Asking a betting public to remember games that went back more than a season is a lot. Yes, Florida State had a seven-game winning streak against Miami, but that matters little now. Too many factors have changed since the Seminoles had that winning streak.
Fans might or might not even remember what happened last season. As we said earlier, so much can happen between now and October 6 to cry that the point spread is unfair sounds like a fan that’s so biased that they are far more of a fan of their own team and not college football in general.
Miami entered last season’s game in Tallahassee as a three-point favorite. No one could have foreseen that a year ago at this time.
The Palm Beach Post’s former Miami Hurricanes beat writer Matt Porter reported during the week before Miami and FSU played last season that the game opened as a pick ’em. The spread moved to Miami being favored by three. The money bet on Miami is what moved the point spread.
The simplest answer to the question “Why do early betting lines favor Miami over Noles?” Because Las Vegas said so.