Miami football given 13th best chance for playoff nationally

The Miami football team has a seven percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff according to a new metric from ESPN Analytics called the playoff predictor. The Hurricanes are given the 13th best chance of any team to reach the four-team Playoff.

The seven percent chance for the Miami football team might not sound that great. Consider that the Playoff Predictor only considered 20 teams.

Clemson has the best chance of reaching the College Football Playoff by 20 percent. The Tigers are given a 67 percent chance of earning a playoff berth. Alabama is second at 47 percent.

The Tigers also lead the way with winning the championship. Clemson is given a 24 percent chance to win their second title in three seasons. The Crimson Tide is second at 14 percent. Miami is given a less than one percent chance to win the title.

The only other ACC team listed among the top 20 is Florida State. The Seminoles are given a less than one percent chance to make the playoff and win a National Title.

Notre Dame who is a member of the ACC in everything but football is given a 42 percent chance to make the playoff and 10 percent chance to win the National Championship.

The Fighting Irish are fourth nationally in their projected chance to both make the playoff and win a National Championship behind Clemson, Alabama and Georgia. The Bulldogs are given a 43 percent chance to make the playoff and 13 percent chance to win the title.

Miami crushed Notre Dame 41-8 last season at Hard Rock Stadium in November. They do not play the Fighting Irish this season. LSU essentially replaces Notre Dame on the Hurricanes schedule. The Tigers are not one of the 20 teams selected as most likely to make the playoff.

The model ESPN Analytics is using is based on how the College Football Playoff committee has chosen the teams over the last four seasons. ESPN’s description of what goes into the formula is below.

• Strength of Record (SOR) (how much teams have accomplished)
• FPI (how good teams are)
• Number of losses (incorporated into SOR but the committee places even more emphasis on losses)
• Conference championships
• Independent status (Notre Dame can’t be a conference champion, but all else being equal it might get more credit than a team that didn’t win its conference championship) — despite the committee claiming it wants the four best teams.

One thing that seems to be missing from the list is division titles. Alabama earned a playoff berth last season despite not winning its division. The Crimson Tide was undefeated until they lost to Auburn 26-14 in their final regular season game.

Some have proposed that teams that do not win their conference or at least their division should not earn a playoff bid. The criteria for rewarding teams that win their division would help the Miami football team.

If the Hurricanes are fortunate enough to earn their way back to the ACC Championship Game they will face the biggest roadblock according to the playoff predictor with the likelihood of having to play Clemson.

If the criteria were winning the conference title that could potentially harm the Hurricanes. Any formula or metric is going to be flawed. That is part of the reason that the College Football Playoff Committee was formed. They wanted to get away from the BCS Computer and the controversy it caused.

Most Miami fans will remember the Hurricanes being snubbed from the BCS Championship game despite beating Florida State in 2000. Miami was mere percentage points behind the Seminoles who earned a berth in the BCS National Championship Game against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl Game.