Miami football picked by experts over Florida State

The Florida State Miami football game matches two teams trying to return to being elite programs. The Seminoles and Hurricanes both enter Saturday’s game 4-4.

The Miami football team has been maddingly inconsistent this season. The Hurricanes won two games they were expected to lose and in three of their four losses they were expected to win. The Miami football team is a slight underdog at Florida State on Saturday. Most of the experts are picking Miami.

After losing seven straight games to Florida State the Miami football team turned the rivalry around two years ago with a last-second victory in Tallahassee. That victory should help the Hurricanes with the veterans leading the way on Saturday in the return trip up north. Miami won 28-27 last season at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Miami football team needed a comeback from 27-7 down in the third quarter to defeat the Seminoles last season. An N’Kosi Perry to Brevin Jordan 41 yard touchdown pass with 11:52 remaining in the fourth quarter provided Miami with the winning margin. The majority of experts are picking Miami against Florida State.

Three of Sports Illustrated’s five experts pick Miami

"Lorenzo Arguello picks Florida State:When the ACC expanded what feels like a million years ago, it strategically placed Florida State and Miami in separate divisions hoping we’d get a bunch of conference title games featuring these iconic programs.That hasn’t happened yet and this regular season tilt feels like one of the sadder meetings between FSU and Miami since they became conference rivals; each is doing little more than trying to reach bowl eligibility at this point.As for on-the-field matters, the Canes come into this week with a pretty good defense and an average offense, while the Noles are fairly average at everything and feature one of the nation’s premier running backs in Cam Akers.Expect a grind it out game that’ll come down to kicking (surprise! surprise!) and give us FSU for the win."

A grind it out low scoring game favors Miami. The battle between Akers and the Miami run defense will be critical in determining who wins on Saturday. Miami is 17th in FBS allowing 106.13

rushing yards per game 

and 14th allowing 3.06 yards per carry. Akers will be the best running back Miami has faced in 2019.

Akers is 10th in the country in rushing yards per game in FBS. He is averaging 114.63 yards per game on the ground. Akers is putting up 5.27 yards per carry. The junior is also a threat in the passing game. Akers has 21 receptions for 151 yards and three TDs as a receiver.

"Miami (+3) at Florida StateSeven of Miami’s eight games this season have been decided by one score or less, and with the Hurricanes as a three-point underdog in Tallahassee, it wouldn’t be a surprise if another close contest is in the cards.Miami outlasted Pittsburgh this past weekend 16-12 despite rushing for two yards per carry and starting quarterback N’Kosi Perry throwing for 4.3 yards per attempt. Week One starter and redshirt freshman Jarren Williams came on in relief, and led the Hurricanes on a game-winning drive.He and wideout K.J. Osborn connected for a 32-yard score with 58 seconds remaining. Williams is back as the start(er) under center against Florida State, and that should help Miami’s offense.He has the advantage over Perry in yards per attempt (8.4 to 7.2), completion percentage (69.6 to 56.6) and quarterback rating (155.4 to 133.3). The Hurricanes’ offense gets a couple more boosts with the returns of starting tailback DeeJay Dallas and wideout Jeff Thomas.Despite running behind a trainwreck of an offensive line, Dallas is tied for 32nd in the nation in yards per carry at 6.66 (Halloween themed!). He’s a home-run hitter who is only one of seven players in college football with at least three runs of 50 yards or more.Thomas, meanwhile, is coming off a two-game suspension, and he is also extremely explosive. Getting those two back can only improve an inconsistent Miami offense, which is facing an improving Florida State defense since Jim Leavitt has come aboard.The defense also gets back a key player in senior linebacker Michael Pinckney, who is tied for second (on Miami) in sacks and is fourth in tackles. Miami’s front seven hasn’t been elite like last season…The Hurricanes are still tied for 18th in tackles for loss per game and do an excellent job containing big runs, as they have only allowed five runs of 20 yards or more this season (tied for 13th). That’s important when going up against Florida State’s superstar running back Cam Akers.While Year one under Manny Diaz hasn’t gone the way most had hoped in Coral Gables, I still think it’s a better situation at head coach than on the opposite sideline.Under Willie Taggert this season, Florida State ranks 29th in points scored in the first half per game (17.8) and 35th in points allowed in the first half per game (11.5).After halftime, it’s been a completely different story. The Seminoles are 97th in points scored (10.8) and 111th in points allowed in the second half per game.Whether that’s issues with conditioning or poor halftime adjustments, those metrics fall on Taggart for not having his team ready consistently for a 60-minute battle. Florida State is also in worse shape than Miami in penalties per game and turnover margin.I just think Miami is the better team and that it’s better than its 4-4 record suggests. Getting a few key players back in time for this rivalry game helps as well… —Max Meyer"

The biggest thing that comes out of Meyer’s analysis is that the Miami football team has to stay competitive in the first half. The Hurricanes do not want to dig themselves into a 13 point halftime deficit and 20 point third-quarter deficit like last season. Florida State has made a habit of second-half collapses this season.

The Seminoles blew a 31-13 lead against Boise State, a 24-7 lead against Louisiana-Monroe before winning 45-44 in overtime, were outscored 21-7 in the fourth quarter in a loss at Virginia and allowed 10 fourth-quarter points in a 22-20 loss at Wake Forest.

"Underdog of the WeekMiami (+3.5) at Florida State: I was mad at myself last week. I had initially planned to make Miami (+6) my Lock of the Week on the road against Pitt. In the end, I went against my gut because I didn’t want to trust Miami…Pitt is the most chaotic team in the world, and I didn’t want to lock up anything when Pitt was involved.Well, Miami not only covered, it won straight up like I thought it would do. I’m not making the same mistake twice. Miami is a better team than Florida State. I know the records might not show it, and I know this game is in Tallahassee, but Miami is a better team than Florida State.Miami’s defensive front is going to be a nightmare for a Florida State offensive line that has a lot of problems, and that’s going to lead to turnovers. When Miami is forcing turnovers, it’s tough to beat. Florida State won’t on Saturday.Miami 24, Florida State 20- Tom Fornelli CBS Sports"

The last paragraph Fornelli wrote about is one to watch. The Miami football defense forced three turnovers last week and redshirt freshman defensive lineman Greg Rousseau was unblockable. Rousseau had a career-high with seven tackles and three sacks. Rousseau has 10.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks this season.

The consensus that Canes Warning’s partner The Action Network lists is Florida State as a three-point favorite. The last five Florida State Miami football game has been decided by a total of 15 points. Saturday seems to be headed in the same director.