Miami football missing out on 5-star local recruits becoming national trend
Elliott examined the trend of five-star players leaving their state heading all the way back to 2001 in four-year blocks. In each cycle of players through a college football program, the number of five-star players staying in their home state has dwindled.
The four lowest rates of five-star players signing in-state have happened over the past four seasons. The senior class this fall was the first one of signees that stayed in-state at less than a 25 percent rate when they signed National Letters of Intent in 2017. Elliott listed the four-year cycles beginning in 2001.
- From 2001-04, 62 percent of five-star recruits stayed in their home states.
- From 2005-08, 51 percent
- From 2009-12, 53 percent
- From 2013-16, 53 percent
- From 2017-20, 34 percent
Miami Hurricanes Football
Elliott mentioned that 12 of the 27 five-star players in the 247 sports composite are projected to sign with an out of state program according to their Crystal Ball. Only four of those 12 players are currently committed to a program. If Miami signs even Marshall and Brooks as they are projected to they would be major additions for the Hurricanes.
Elliott next asked the question “Why are more five-star players leaving their home states?” He equated a few reasons for the trend of five-star players signing out of state. Some impact Miami. The Hurricanes’ lack of success for nearly a decade, SEC schools and Florida State poaching South Florida had the biggest impact.
- Some schools are reaching out more nationally. Like Georgia.
- Early official visits are also helping the recruiting world become a smaller place.
- Many of the best programs in the best states have been down in the College Football Playoff era.
Number three is all too familiar to Miami football fans. Schellenberger’s declaration to build a virtual fence around Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties and the success that followed for the Miami football program kept the majority of stars home for nearly a 10-year period. Elliott’s second reason is critical.