The Miami Hurricanes should be at the back end of the top 10 or just outside that in the College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night.
The Miami Hurricanes are currently ranked ninth in the USA Today Coaches Poll and 10th in the AP Top 25. When the College Football Playoff rankings are released Tuesday Miami should rank similar to those rankings or just behind it. Miami stayed ninth in the USA Today Coaches Poll and moved up two spots in the AP Top 25.
After impressive wins early in the season over Louisville and Florida State, Miami lost 42-25 at Clemson and has not won as decisively since. Since losing to the Tigers the Hurricanes have won four in a row by 19 points total, seven in their last three games. The margin of victory matters to poll voters.
The Miami Hurricanes have one win over a top 25 team this season. The Hurricanes’ victory over Louisville in September came when the Cardinals were ranked 18th. Louisville has since fallen out of the rankings with a 3-6 record. Clemson is the only other ranked team Miami has played this season.
Clemson was number one when they defeated Miami last month. The difference between the College Football Playoff rankings and its predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series is a computer program and subjective observations. The CFP is determined by a committee and the BCS was determined by a computer.
The college football playoff committee is a cross-section of former coaches, players and current administrators in college football. Pro Football Hall of Fame Safety Ronnie Lott and Florida Athletic Director Scott Stricklin are the most familiar names on the committee. Miami is likely playing for New Year’s Six Bowl berth.
Where the Miami Hurricanes are in the College Football Playoff rankings will provide a good determination if they will receive New Year’s Six Bowl berth provided they win out. The ideal determination of the CFP rankings is a mix of analytics and the committee using their own judgment of who the best teams are.
How high Miami is regarded analytically depends on which metrics are being used. The Hurricanes average 33.2 points per game which is 38th nationally out of 127 teams, are 40th allowing 24.8 PPG, ninth in the college football reference simple rating system at 13.75 and have the 12th in strength of schedule at 5.88 per CFR.
The rankings from various websites are completely subjective. Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports has Miami 14th. Pete Fiutak of College Football News has the Hurricanes ninth which matches the Coaches Poll. Miami is 11th in the 247 CFP rankings posted by Brad Crawford. Not having a signature win will hurt Miami.
With the first CFP rankings being unveiled Tuesday, here's what the latest Allstate Playoff Predictor has to say 👀
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 22, 2020
(📍 @Allstate) pic.twitter.com/7E2Gb8ye5Z
The Hurricanes will be in the mix with Indiana and Northwestern of the Big 10 and Group of Five unbeatens BYU and Cincinnati. Northwestern defeated undefeated, number 10 Wisconsin on Saturday and Indiana battled Ohio State before losing 42-35. Miami’s blowout loss to Clemson will remain in the eyes of the committee.
BYU is 9-0, Cincinnati 8-0. Neither the Cougars nor Bearcats have defeated a top 25 team this season. The most impressive win by BYU this season was a 55-3 victory over Navy in their season opener. The Midshipmen were 11-2 in 2019. Cincinnati has a win over Central Florida, but the Knights are 5-3 in 2020.
Miami moved up three spots in the ESPN Football Power Index. Part of the FPI is predicated on who was returning from the previous season. Miami is docked on that because quarterback D’Eriq King was not on the Hurricanes roster in 2019. Northwestern is 19th and led by transfer QB Peyton Ramsay.
The Wildcats dropped one spot after their win over Wisconsin. Win out and Miami should continue to move up even in the analytical ratings. Miami has games left against North Carolina who is 22nd in the FPI and was likely aided by the return of QB Sam Howell, number 33 Wake Forest and 91st rated Georgia Tech.