The Miami Hurricanes will likely be without first-team quarterback D’Eriq King on Thursday night when they host Virginia. Miami opened as a four-point favorite according to Wynn Bet. That number has been bet up to five on Tuesday with an over/under of 62. How would that number be different if King was healthy?
An article by R.J. White of CBS Sports last year examined “Knowing how to adjust lines when each starting QB is ruled out during the season.” College is much more difficult to gauge how to adjust lines without a QB than it would be in the NFL. The QBs in the NFL are more of a known factor than college backups.
Ultimately the line moves up or down or stays at the original point spread depending on the confidence the public has in the backups. The response from the betting public for Miami and Virginia is likely the response of two factors. Miami defeated Central Connecticut State last week 69-0, Virginia is coming off two blowout losses.
The performances of Miami backup quarterbacks Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia last week, albeit against FCS Central Connecticut State probably gained the confidence of the betting public. Virginia has allowed 1,172 total yards and 577 passing in the last two games. Miami should be able to batter Virginia on the ground.
Tyler Van Dyke echoes what Jake Garcia said earlier: D’Eriq King was very involved in helping the Canes and the QBs prepare this week.
— Christy Chirinos (@ChristyChirinos) September 25, 2021
On the QB room: “We all support each other…I love all those guys. They all do great things.”
Virginia allowed an excessive 595 yards rushing in the last two games. King was 21-30 for 322 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and ran 14 times for 28 yards as Miami defeated Virginia 19-14 last season. The Cavaliers had a far better defense in 2020. With Virginia hemorrhaging yards King should have had a big game.
The ability that King has as a dual-threat QB should have shredded the Cavaliers’ defense. Garcia and Van Dyke are far more traditional QBs. Van Dyke and Garcia combined to go 21-25 for 417 yards and five TDs last week. Garcia added a 45-yard run last week but is not close to as mobile as King.
White wrote that every time a starting QB gets hurt during the season, bettors have to determine how much the loss impacts each team. In 2020, White had the difference for the Seattle Seahawks going from Russell Wilson to Gene Smith, in theory, to be worth 10 points. The Chicago Bears had no difference in their QBs.
White felt that the 2020 Chicago QBs, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky to be a wash. King would likely be worth about three points for Miami. The Hurricanes have upgraded their talent at backup up QB from last season when N’Kosi Perry was the understudy to King. Perry did provide Miami with an experienced backup QB.
White examined how the lines changed when the New Orleans Saints Drew Brees and Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes were out in 2019 and Andrew Luck retired before the season started. Ultimately the betting public will decide how much a spread is worth. With King we will find out if and when he returns this season.