The Miami football program is projected to lose to North Carolina, North Carolina State and Pittsburgh in their three October games after a bye next week according to the updated ESPN Football Power Index. The Hurricanes were originally favored in their last 11 2021 games by the FPI to begin the 2021 season.
Miami has a 41.3 percent chance to win October 16 at North Carolina, a 48 percent chance to defeat North Carolina State on October 23 and a 28.7 percent chance against Pittsburgh in what could be a key ACC Coastal Division game. If Miami loses all three of those games, they would drop to 2-6 to begin the 2021 season.
The flip side of the projections for the Tar Heels, Wolfpack and Panthers is that the ESPN FPI favors the Miami football program to win their final four games of the 2021 season. Miami has a 61.4 percent chance to defeat Georgia Tech, 71.6 percent against Florida State, 64.8 percent against Virginia Tech and 66.9 versus Duke.
Another 6-6 season at Miami would be unacceptable. Finishing 6-6 in the regular season would mark the third time in the last four seasons that Miami would not win more than seven games. The Hurricanes finished 7-6 in the final season under Mark Richt in 2018 and 6-7 during Manny Diaz’s first season in 2019.
updated ACC Coastal odds, according to ESPN's FPI, after Virginia's win over Miami pic.twitter.com/0YYFKLOCwu
— Johnny McGonigal (@jmcgonigal9) October 1, 2021
Following last weekend’s games, Miami was projected with a 22.6 percent chance to win the ACC Coastal by the FPI. Miami dropped to nine percent with the loss to Virginia. The Cavaliers are at 5.6 percent. Preseason favorite North Carolina who already has two ACC losses is given a six percent chance to win the Coastal.
Pittsburgh is the prohibitive favorite after Miami lost to Virginia. The Panthers improved from a 38.8 percent chance to win the Coastal to a 42.4 percent chance with the loss by Miami to Virginia. Virginia Tech is the second favorite to win the Coastal at 19.5 percent and Georgia Tech is at 16.7 percent.