How Miami football can still win ACC Coastal

Oct 30, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 30, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

After losing their first two ACC games against Virginia and North Carolina the Miami football team is back in the race to win the Coastal Division following wins against North Carolina State and at Pittsburgh. The Miami football team needs the Panthers and Cavaliers to lose at least once each to have a chance to win the Coastal.

Virginia plays at Pittsburgh on November 20. Pittsburgh is given at least a 76.4 percent chance to win each of their last four games this season by the ESPN Football Power Index. Virginia has a bye this week and finishes the season at Notre Dame on November 13, at Pittsburgh and versus Virginia Tech.

The FPI gives Virginia a 45.4 percent chance to defeat Notre Dame in a non-conference game, a 20.5 percent chance at Pittsburgh and a 65.6 percent chance to defeat Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 17 games against Virginia. The Cavaliers ended a 15 game losing streak in the rivalry in 2019.

The Miami victory over Pittsburgh gave the Panthers their first ACC loss. Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech all have two losses. Pittsburgh finishes their season at Duke, versus North Carolina and Virginia and at Syracuse. The Miami loss to Virginia could be the one to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC Championship Game.

"How Miami (4-4, 2-2) wins the ACC CoastalMiami’s remaining ACC schedule: Georgia Tech, at Florida State, Virginia Tech, at DukeDead in the water this season under Manny Diaz after a midseason loss at North Carolina dropped Miami to 2-4 overall, the Hurricanes have come roaring back with consecutive wins over nationally-ranked ACC opponents N.C. State and Pittsburgh to regain control of their season.Right now, Virginia and North Carolina are the only teams in the Coastal who own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Hurricanes, but the problem for the Tar Heels is they already have three conference losses.If Miami wins out, the Hurricanes win the division as long as Virginia does not. Miami needs the Cavaliers to finish, at best, 5-3 in conference play."

The above summary on Miami was from Brad Crawford of 247 Sports “Mapping out ACC Championship Game scenarios in Atlantic, Coastal divisions” by Brad Crawford. Miami could finish in a three-way tie for the ACC Coastal title with Pittsburgh and Virginia, but the Cavaliers would win the tiebreaker with wins over both.

The Miami football team lost to Virginia on September 30 when true freshman kicker Andres Borregales hit the left upright with a potential game-winning field goal. Miami lost their next game at North Carolina when the Tar Heels had an interception off of a tipped pass from Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke with six seconds left.

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Manny Diaz will have Miami focused on maintaining their emotions in the last four games of the season. Miami is at least a 62.4 percent favorite over their last four games per the FPI. If Miami wins out they will at least put themselves in position to have a chance to win the Coastal the last weekend of the regular season.