Despite a 35-13 record in four seasons as the head coach at Oregon, the Ducks finished below .500 against the spread during the Mario Cristobal era. In an examination by the College Football News, Cristobal ranks ninth out of the 11 ACC head coaches studied. The ACC has three head coaches in their first jobs.
Miami finished 7-5 last season overall and 6-6 against the spread. Oregon finished over .500 versus the spread on extra rest, as a road favorite and on away from home overall. The most impressive performance for Oregon in 2021 was a 35-28 win at Ohio State as a 14.5-point underdog.
The worst performances for Oregon under Mario Cristobal was a 7-14 record as a home favorite. Miami was 2-5 at home in 2021 against the spread. That included a 69-0 win over FCS Central Connecticut State as a 46-point favorite. Miami also defeated Virginia Tech 38-26 at home as a seven-point favorite.
The hiring of Cristobal has received nearly unanimous praise. Cristobal should have a couple of years of a honeymoon before significant criticism would occur if Miami doesn’t live up to the expectations set when the former Hurricane offensive tackle was hired. CFN posted an extensive list of Cristobal’s record against the spread.
"9. Mario Cristobal, Miami*Oregon ATS record since 2018ATS Overall: 21-27 (43.8%)On Extra Rest: 6-2vs. Ranked: 7-7After Win: 15-18After Loss: 5-6Home: 8-15Road: 10-8Favorite: 14-19Underdog: 6-8Home Favorite: 7-14Home Dog: 1-1Road Favorite: 7-5Road Dog: 3-3vs. Conference: 17-18Non-conference: 4-9Over/Under (to the over)Overall: 22-25-1On Extra Rest: 1-6-1vs. Ranked: 6-8Home: 11-11-1Road: 8-10Favorite: 16-16-1Underdog: 6-8Home Favorite: 10-10-1Home Dog: 1-1Road Favorite: 6-6Road Dog: 2-4Conference: 17-17-1Non-conference: 5-8"
Entering the season Miami is expected to be underdogs at Texas A&M on September 17 and Clemson on November 19. Miami has the potential to be an underdog at Virginia Tech and Virginia in October depending on how the season plays out. Miami is significantly favored in every game except Clemson and Texas A&M per the ESPN FPI.
In recent years Miami usually lost a game or two when they were favored. With Cristobal as head coach despite the track record at Oregon indicating the Ducks often did not perform up to the projections of the oddsmakers, Miami will be expected to be significantly improved under Cristobal.
Cristobal has won the offseason. Miami added 11 quality transfers, signed a top 20 2022 recruiting class that was ranked nearly 60 spots lower when he was hired and has a top 10 2023 class full of blue chip commitments. It should be an interesting season to see how well Miami performs versus bookmaker expectations.