ESPN FPI game by game Miami football projections

Sep 4, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 4, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /

The Miami football team is a heavy favorite in 10 of their 12 games ahead of the 2022 season according to the ESPN Football Power Index positions. Miami opens the season on Saturday with better than a 99 percent chance to defeat FCS Bethune-Cookman at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami hosts Southern Mississippi in week two,

The Hurricanes have a 96 percent chance to defeat the Golden Eagles in week two. Miami plays its first road game of the season week three at Texas A&M. The game is a near pick ’em with Miami having a 44 percent chance to defeat Texas A&M. A win for Miami in College Station could propel the Hurricanes into the top 10 nationally.

The Miami football team will finish its non-conference schedule with a 93 percent chance to defeat Middle Tennessee State at home in week four. The Blue Raiders finished 7-6 in 2021. That included a 35-14 loss at then number 19 Virginia Tech. This will be the first game between Miami and Middle Tennessee State.

Miami has a bye week before beginning ACC play versus North Carolina on October 8. The Tar Heels have won the last three years versus the Hurricanes. Miami has a 78 percent chance to defeat North Carolina per the FPI. North Carolina defeated Florida A&M 56-24 in its season opener on Saturday.


  1. Bethune-Cookman Sat, Sep 03 >99 chance to win
  2. Southern Miss Sat, Sep 10 96
  3. @Texas A&M Sat, Sep 17 44
  4. Middle Tennessee Sat, Sep 24 93
  5. BYE
  6. North Carolina Sat, Oct 08 78
  7. @Virginia Tech Sat, Oct 15 82
  8. Duke Sat, Oct 22 96
  9. @Virginia Sat, Oct 29 74
  10. Florida State Sat, Nov 05 76
  11. @Georgia Tech Sat, Nov 12 81
  12. @Clemson Sat, Nov 19 20
  13. Pittsburgh Sat, Nov 26 70

Miami will play at Virginia Tech on October 15 in its first road game of 2022. The Hurricanes have an 82 percent chance to defeat the Hokies. Miami returns home the following week with a 96 percent chance to defeat Duke. The Hurricanes have won the last three games versus the Blue Devils, all three were in Durham.

Miami will play at Virginia on October 29 for the first time since 2018 with a 74 percent chance to defeat the Cavaliers. Virginia is one of four ACC Coastal Division teams with a new head coach. Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Scott replaced Bronko Mendenhall who retired.

After having its four-game winning streak against Florida State ended last season, Miami will hope to return to its recent dominance when they host the Seminoles on November 5. The FPI projects Miami with a 76 percent chance to defeat Florida State. Miami has not lost at home to Florida State since 2016.

The ESPN FPI projects Miami to have a seven-game winning streak with an 81 percent chance to win at Georgia Tech on November 12. Miami has not won in Atlanta since 2016. The toughest game on the 2022 Miami football schedule is projected to be at Clemson on November 19. The Tigers have an 80 percent chance to win.

Next. ESPN FPI projects Miami with 10th best chance to win division. dark

Miami will conclude the season on November 26 versus Pittsburgh in a game many project to be the defeat ACC Coastal Division championship game. Miami has a 70 percent chance to win versus Pittsburgh. Despite Pittsburgh winning two of the last four ACC Coastal titles, Miami has a four-game winning streak versus the Panthers.