Metrics favor Miami football versus Texas AM

Sep 10, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 10, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

The Miami football team has better than a 50 percent chance to win at Texas A&M on Saturday according to various metrics. The ESPN Football Power Index projects Miami with a 53.6 percent chance to defeat Texas A&M. Team Rankings give Miami a 53 percent chance to beat Texas A&M.

Miami is currently 17th in the ESPN FPI and Texas A&M is 29. The Aggies and Hurricanes both dropped nine spots after week two. Miami overcame a sluggish start to defeat Southern Mississippi 30-7. Texas A&M was unable to overcome an anemic offense in a shocking 17-14 home loss to Appalachian State.

The Aggies’ offense totaled 186 yards and seven points in the loss to the Mountaineers. Texas A&M running Devon Achane had a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Texas A&M has been elite defensively in 2022. Texas A&M began 2022 with a 31-0 win over Spring 2021 FCS Championship Sam Houston State.

Miami is 16th in the TeamRankings.Com “NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings & Ratings” and Texas A&M is 27th. Miami dropped from 11th last week and Texas A&M from 14th in the Team Rankings metrics.  Texas A&M is the second highest ranked team in the metrics Miami will play this season.

Clemson is fourth in the FPI and eighth in ratings. The game at Clemson on November 19 is now the only one that Miami is given a less than 50 percent chance to win via the metrics. Miami has a 24.8 percent chance to win at Clemson by the FPI. That is an increase from 20 percent to begin the season.

TeamRankings gives the Miami football team a much higher 37.8 percent chance to defeat Clemson. The games at Texas A&M and Clemson were expected to be the marquee games of the season for Miami. Clemson and Texas A&M are the games Miami has the lowest chance of winning according to both metrics.

How Miami plays on Saturday at Texas A&M should have a lasting impact on the metrics for the remainder of the season. Miami last defeated an SEC team on the road in 2013 when it won 21-16 at Florida. Even with the Aggies’ stumble versus Appalachian State, their schedule strength will become stronger throughout 2022.

Next. Miami drops eight spots in ESPN FPI after Southern Miss win. dark

Pittsburgh who is 31st in the ESPN FPI and 34th in the TeamRankings metrics is the highest ranked team after Texas A&M that Miami plays this season. The FPI gives Miami a 60.4 percent chance to win the ACC Coastal division and has the Hurricanes at 23.7 percent to win the conference title.