Miami football projections winning ACC Coastal plummets in ESPN FPI

Oct 8, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 8, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports /

The chance for the Miami football team to win the ACC Coastal Division fell from 37.2 percent after week five to 8.7 percent following the week six loss to North Carolina. Miami fell from a 10.2 percent chance to win the ACC after week five to 1.7 following the loss to North Carolina. Miami fell three spots overall in the FPI.

The Hurricanes are now 37th nationally in the FPI. Miami ranks seventh among ACC teams and second in the Coastal Division in the FPI behind North Carolina who moved up five spots to 35th nationally passing Miami with their win over the Hurricanes. The FPI projects Miami to finish the 2022 season with 6.3 wins and 5.8 losses.

Miami is given a 75 percent chance to win six games which would qualify them for a bowl game. This is the second straight season Miami is under .500 in October. Miami began the 2021 season 2-4 before winning five of its final six games to finish 7-5. Miami had to withdraw from the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl due to covid protocol.

Miami is favored in every remaining game this season according to the FPI with the exception of at Clemson on November 19. The Hurricanes are at least given a 60 percent chance to win those games with the exception of Florida State on November 5. The FPI projects Miami with a 51.6 percent chance to defeat Florida State.

The percentage that Miami is projected to win in each remaining game this season has dropped with the exception of at Virginia on October 29 after the loss to North Carolina. Virginia lost 34-17 to Louisville on Saturday. The Cavaliers are 2-4 overall, 0-3 in the ACC and like Miami has a three-game losing streak.

Miami is given a 78.4 percent chance to win at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Virginia Tech is 2-4 overall, 1-2 in the ACC and also has a three-game losing streak with each loss by at least 16 points. Virginia Tech is 98th nationally in the FPI and last among ACC teams. Miami at Virginia Tech kicks off at 12:30 PM.

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Miami has a very winnable schedule in front of them. Clemson who is sixth in the FPI and Florida State who is 24th are the only teams remaining on the Miami football schedule ranked higher than the Hurricanes. With Clemson remaining on the schedule and the loss the North Carolina winning the Coastal Division will be very difficult.