Miami football at Virginia Week 9 odds and prediction

The Miami football team will play at Virginia on Saturday after another tough loss on Saturday to Duke. Miami will bring a 3-4 overall record and 1-2 in the ACC to Charlottesville. Virginia won 16-9 at Georgia Tech on Thursday. The Cavaliers are also 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the ACC. Virginia head coach Tony Elliott got his first ACC win.

The Miami football team is an early 2.5-point favorite over Virginia per Fan Duel. The total is a paltry 47.5 points. Miami is 67th nationally averaging 29.3 points per game. Virginia is 123rd at 17.6 PPG. Miami is 94th averaging 22.5 PPG versus FBS opponents. Virginia is 124th at 14.8 PPG against FBS opponents.

Miami is 42nd in total offense averaging 421.2 yards per game but has frequently stalled too often offensively in the red zone. Virginia is 99th averaging 341.2 yards per game versus FBS opponents. Miami is 105th converting 47.83 of its red zone trips into touchdowns. Virginia is eighth in red zone TD percentage nationally.

Miami has not scored more than 24 points since its 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee State. That was the most points Miami scored this season versus an FBS opponent. Virginia scored a season-high versus an FBS opponent in a 22-20 loss to Syracuse last month. That was the only game UVA has reached 20 versus an FBS opponent.

Miami football at Virginia Week nine odds

Moneyline: Miami: (-132) Virginia (+110)
Spread: MIAMI: -2.5 (-106) Virginia +2.5(-114)
Total: 47.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

Miami betting trends

Miami-FL is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami-FL is 1-4 straight up in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami-FL’s last 6 games
Miami-FL is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Virginia
Miami-FL is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami-FL’s last 8 games when playing Virginia
Miami-FL is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami-FL’s last 7 games at Virginia

Courtesy National Football Post

Virginia betting trends

Virginia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Virginia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia’s last 8 games
Virginia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia’s last 5 games at home
Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami-FL
Virginia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Virginia’s last 8 games when playing Miami-FL
Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Virginia’s last 7 games when playing at home against Miami-FL

Courtesy National Football Post

Miami football at Virginia Week 9 prediction

As low as the total both teams have trended below that number this season. Miami has far lower numbers when the 70 points in the season opener versus Bethune-Cookman is taken out. The Hurricanes are 77th in touchdowns scored this season with 25 and the Cavaliers are 122nd with 15.

It’s nearly impossible to trust Miami as a favorite until they can play consistently. Losses to Duke and Middle Tennessee State seemed unlikely in the week prior to the game. Miami and Virginia have split their last four meetings. Virginia won both the last game in Miami last year and in Charlottesville in 2018.

Miami hosted three straight games against Virginia from 2018 through 2020 due to the covid rearranged schedule two years ago. Miami needs consistency for 60 minutes. Miami has yet to play a complete game this season. Miami played well through three quarters versus Virginia Tech before hanging on for a 20-14 win.