Expect Miami basketball 2022 NCAA Tournament formula without Norchad Omier

Mar 9, 2023; Greensboro, NC, USA; Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 9, 2023; Greensboro, NC, USA; Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

Norchard Omier finished third in the Atlantic Coast Conference averaging 9.7 rebounds per game, sixth averaging 1.3 blocks and second shooting 59.1 percent from the floor. Omier led the Miami basketball team in all three categories and accounted for 28.1 percent of all the Hurricanes’ rebounds in 2022-23.

Forward Jordan Miller led the Miami basketball team in rebounding in 2021-22 averaging 5.9 rebounds per game. Miller accounted for 18.1 percent of the total rebounds for Miami during the 2021-22 season. The Miami basketball team averaged 29.67 rebounds per game in their three wins in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

USC, Auburn and Iowa State averaged 38.3 rebounds per game in the losses to Miami during the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Jim Larranaga and his staff have dealt with an undersized team before. Sam Waardenburg at 6’10 averaged only 4.3 rebounds per game as a stretch four with the 6’7 Miller leading the team in rebounding.

The Miami scramble defense becomes more important if Omier does not play versus Drake. The key for Miami to make another deep tournament run and especially without Omier will be turnovers. Miami averaged 6.67 turnovers per game and forced 15.67 in their three 2022 NCAA Tournament wins.

Miami was able to overcome a significant rebounding deficit during their 2022 tournament run by earning nine more possessions because of the turnover advantage. Miami is averaging 11.3 turnovers per game this season and forcing 12.3. Miami averaged 34.6 rebounds per game to 31.3 for opponents in 2022-23.

The Hurricanes are 75th in turnovers per game, 171st in turnovers forced per game and 112th with a 1.2 turnover margin per game. Without Omier, turnovers will be more critical. Drake averaged 10.5 turnovers per game this season and forced 12.1. Drake was 73rd nationally this season with a 1.6 turnover margin per game.

Drake has a slight edge with a turnover percentage of 13.8 percent which is 35th nationally to 14.2 for Miami which is 54th. Miami was 83rd this season averaging 7.1 steals per game with Drake 284th nationally grabbing only 5.4 SPG. Drake committed turnovers on 15.2 percent of its possessions which is 31st nationally.

Miami is 60th with turnovers on 16 percent of its possessions. Drake will be a difficult team to turnover. Jim Larranaga has shown the ability to adapt to the players on his roster. Anthony Walker will likely start if Omier is out with A.J. Casey also seeing an increase in minutes. Miami will not be able to rely on Casey and Walker like Omier.

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Rebounding as a team and forcing turnovers worked for Miami during their 2022 run to the Midwest Regional Final. Expect that to be the formula on Friday without Omier. Some reports have stated that if Miami beats Drake, Omier could return for a potential second-round matchup versus the winner of Indiana and Kent State.