Miami Basketball Final 4 betting trends to know

Mar 26, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Miami basketball team is a 5.5-point underdog as of early Thursday evening in its first-ever national semifinal on Saturday versus Connecticut in Houston per FanDuel. There are multiple betting numbers and trends to know ahead of the game between the Hurricanes and Huskies.

Miami alum Chris Fallica who is now a Fox Sports Wagering Analyst provided several betting trends for the Florida Atlantic versus San Diego State game in the first national semifinal and the second semifinal between Miami and UConn. Saturday is the fourth straight game Miami is the underdog.

The Miami basketball team was only favored versus Drake in the first round in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Fallica agrees with Connecticut being a 5.5-point favorite based on its run through the West Regional. Connecticut has also covered the point spread in each of its four 2023 NCAA Tournament games.

Fallica also pointed out that Miami has not lost a game at full strength since January 28 at Pittsburgh. Guard Nijel Pack did not play in the loss to Florida State and forward Norchad Omier suffered an injured ankle 66 seconds into the ACC Tournament semifinal loss against Duke.

Fallica expects a high-scoring game between Miami and UConn. Connecticut has eight players averaging at least six points and 13 minutes per game in the NCAA Tournament according to Fallica. Miami is averaging 87.3 points per game in the wins over Indiana, Houston and Texas.

Four Miami starters average between 13.3 points per game and 16.2 led by Isaiah Wong. Four of the five Miami starters have improved their scoring averages during the NCAA Tournament. Nijel Pack who won the Midwest Region most outstanding player has been the scorer and shooter he was expected since joining Miami.

Pack is averaging 18.5 PPG in the NCAA Tournament which is up from 13.8 for the entire season and has shot 44.8 percent on three-point attempts. Wooga Poplar is averaging 12 PPG in the NCAA Tournament and shooting 52.77 percent from the floor. Poplar is averaging 8.7 PPG and shoots 48.3 percent from the floor this year.

The total for the Miami-UConn game is 149.5. Fox Sports also posted some numbers versus the spread in the Final Four.

Per Fox Sports

Favorites of four to six points are 15-11 ATS (57.7%) and 16-10 SU (61.5%) in the Final Four since 1985.”

Fox also stated Miami is 9-2 as an underdog this season and 20-5 over the last two years.

Taking that one season further Miami is 33-12 versus the spread in the last three years. Miami was 10-17 in the 2020-21 season. Connecticut has been impressive in non-conference games this season with a 14-1 record versus the point spread and 15-0 straight up. Miami has made #dontpickus their rallying cry.

Per Fox Sports “In 17 of the last 18 Final Fours, one of the two favorites entering the semifinals went on to win the national title.” The only team not to win a national championship in that era was UConn in 2014. Connecticut won as a 6.5-point underdog versus Florida in the national semifinal.

Next. Where Miami basketball players ranked as recruits. dark

Dan Hurley will be coaching in his first Final Four for UConn while Jim Larranaga is making his second appearance in the National Semifinals. The coaches with more experience are 42-30 straight up and 37-34-1 versus the point spread in the Final Four since 1979. George Mason didn’t cover with Larranaga in 2006.