Computer model and national expert picks Miami football at Florida State

Nov 5, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /

The Miami football team is a significant underdog at Florida State on Saturday. Florida State is favored by 13.5 points over Miami by the FanDuel sportsbook. The ESPN Football Power Index gives Florida State an 85 percent chance to defeat Miami. Miami beating Florida State would shock oddsmakers and the metrics.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports picks Florida State minus -14.5 over the Miami football teamon Saturday under “Other CFP candidates” as part of his “College football picks, predictions, odds…among best bets in Week 11.” Florida State is 3-1 versus the point spread at home this season and Miami is 1-3 versus the number on the road.

The Miami football team is 4-5 overall versus the spread this season. The Hurricanes are 1-4 against the spread in ACC games. Miami beat Clemson in double overtime as a six-point underdog three weeks ago. Florida State is 6-3 versus the spread this season. The Seminoles are 6-2 as a favorite in 2023.

Florida State beat LSU 45-24 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Seminoles have been the favorite in their eight games since beating LSU. CBS Sports ran simulations for Multiple games this week including Miami at FSU. “College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 11, 2023: Proven model likes Florida State, Georgia”

"“One of the college football picks the model is recommending for Saturday: No. 4 Florida State (-14.5) easily covers against Miami (Fla.) at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon. Miami got off to a 4-0 start this season, but its campaign has been unraveling ever since a late coaching blunder led to a 23-20 loss to Georgia Tech.The Hurricanes have only covered the spread once in their last five games, falling to NC State in a 20-6 final last week. Florida State, meanwhile, has won all nine of its games this season, covering the spread in 10 of its last 15 contests dating back to last year.The Seminoles have won four straight games by at least 17 points, so they are used to winning games comfortably.Their high-powered offense is led by senior quarterback Jordan Travis, and the model has him finishing with more than 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in its latest simulations, which is one reason why FSU is covering the spread well over 60% of the time.”"

Too many penalties and turnovers have placed Miami as a big underdog at Florida State and for the computers to project the Hurricanes to lose to the Seminoles. Florida State has an advantage over Miami in nearly every category. If Miami can eliminate turnovers and minimize penalties it can be more competitive versus FSU.

As Mario Cristobal has preached since he was hired in December 2021, Miami has to win the line of scrimmage versus Florida State. Miami has played well on the line of scrimmage through its missteps in ACC games. Miami is third in the ACC In yards per carry and second in fewest sacks allowed.

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Miami leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed per carry, is tied for first in tackles for loss and is second in sacks. Cristobal has emphasized recruiting for the offensive and defensive lines and that has paid dividends in 2023. Florida State should have a huge advantage in playmakers if they are healthy.