Miami is 8-2, sitting at No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings and carrying the ACC's highest national ranking. Yet with two weeks left, the Hurricanes are as much scoreboard watchers as contenders, clinging to a sliver of hope that chaos breaks perfectly and delivers them back to Charlotte.
In the ACC's divisionless format, the top two teams by conference record reach the championship game on Dec. 6 at Bank of America Stadium. Right now, Georgia Tech and Virginia share the lead at 6-1, followed by SMU and Pittsburgh at 5-1, with Miami and Duke at 4-2. Those six are the only programs still mathematically alive entering Week 13.
Every one of the scenarios start the same way: Miami has to finish 2-0 on the road at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Anything less, and the ACC dream is done, as well as the CFP.
Option 1 for Miami to make conference title game
Scenario One keeps Virginia in control. In this version, Miami wins out, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt upsets Georgia Tech, and Louisville hands SMU a loss in Week 13. A week later, Miami beats Pitt, SMU rebounds against Cal, and Wake Forest takes down Duke. That leaves Virginia on top at 7-1 and four teams — Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt and SMU — bunched at 6-2. Miami would emerge from that four-way logjam with the second spot in Charlotte.
Option 2 for Miami to make conference title game
Scenario two is similar to scenario one, but flips SMU's week-to-week fortunes. Miami still wins out, Duke still beats North Carolina, and Pitt still knocks off Georgia Tech. This time, SMU beats Louisville before losing at Cal, with Wake Forest again beating Duke in the finale. The standings end up in the same shape at the top: Virginia 7-1, and the same four teams at 6-2. Miami again holds the tiebreaker edge and would face Virginia for the title.
Option 3 for Miami to make conference title game
Scenario three is the wild one. Add a Virginia Tech upset of Virginia in Week 14 to the moving parts above and you get a five-team pileup at 6-2. The projected order in that scenario would be Miami first, followed by Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Pitt. It's a long shot.