Saturday's game at Hard Rock Stadium between the Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles will show two programs at opposite ends of the development process. Mario Cristobal has Miami sitting at 5-0 after a run to the CFP national championship game, and Mike Norvell is once again fighting for his job after a 3-3 start for Florida State. Here are seven bold predictions for the matchup.
1. Ashton Daniels finishes with fewer than 30 rushing yards
Daniels enters Saturday with 323 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, so holding him under 30 looks aggressive on the surface. But roughly 42% of those yards, and half of the touchdowns, came in one game, when he ran for 136 yards and five scores against Virginia.
Alabama held him to seven net rushing yards on 13 attempts, and Louisville limited him to 45 yards on 13 attempts last week. Miami has also had some success against mobile quarterbacks this year.
Wake Forest's Gio Lopez had rushed for 97 yards in his first two games before finishing with minus-8 yards against the Hurricanes (only 11 yards once three sacks are removed). Clemson's Tait Reynolds had 92 rushing yards in his previous three games before finishing at minus-22.
Miami has allowed zero quarterback rushing touchdowns this season. The under-30 yards prediction can also be paired with Daniels not scoring a rushing touchdown.
The Hurricanes have allowed only one rushing touchdown all year, from Clemson running back Gideon Davidson in the fourth quarter, and zero in the first half.
2. Florida State finishes below 100 rushing yards as a team
Florida State has 1,123 rushing yards on the season and averages 187.2 per game, fourth in the ACC, so holding the Seminoles under 100 would be huge for the Hurricanes.
But Miami has surrendered only 14 rushing first downs all season, so there is some merit to this one.
Florida State averages 4.84 yards per rush overall but falls to 3.02 when the score is tied, 3.46 when trailing by 8-14 points and 2.11 when trailing by 15 or more. Its largest rushing totals have come disproportionately while playing from ahead.
Miami's opponents have averaged 1.07 yards per carry in the second quarter and 0.86 in the third. On second downs the Hurricanes have allowed 10 yards on 33 rushing attempts, or 0.30 per carry.
If Miami gets ahead, Florida State's best offensive weapon will fade.
3. Miami rushes for at least 250 yards
Miami already averages 220.4 rushing yards and 6.16 yards per carry, ranking third in the ACC in rushing yardage. Florida State is 14th in the ACC in rushing defense, allowing 993 yards so far this season (4.60 per carry through six games).
In matchups against FBS opponents, the Seminoles are allowing 6.67 yards per rush with a 50% rushing success rate. Louisville ran for 397 yards and six touchdowns on 43 carries last week, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, with Isaac Brown accounting for 235 yards.
Miami would not need anything close to that efficiency to reach 250. At its current 6.16 yards per carry, 41 rushing attempts would produce roughly 253 yards.
A game in which Miami is favored by three touchdowns creates a second-half script that could push the Hurricanes past 40 attempts.
4. Miami sacks Ashton Daniels at least five times
Florida State has allowed 16 sacks through six games, third-most in the ACC behind only Virginia (2.67 per game). Miami has generated 16 sacks in five games, with the totals rising from one against Stanford to two against Florida A&M, three against Wake Forest, four against Central Michigan and six against Clemson.
The prediction should come true if Miami stops the run and forces Florida State into obvious passing situations. Daniels is completing 59.5% of his passes with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he drops to 53.6% in second halves.
When Florida State is trailing by 8-14 points, its team completion percentage falls to 37.5%.
Five sacks is a large number, but Miami just recorded six against another mobile quarterback in Reynolds while Florida State ranks among the ACC leaders in sacks allowed.
5. Darian Mensah completes at least 80% of his passes
An 80% completion prediction against Florida State sounds high, but Mensah is completing 84.2% of his passes for the season. He has finished at 85% or better in four of five games, with Clemson's 66.7% the only exception.
His first-half passing numbers are 80-of-92, and he is 37-of-40 in first quarters. Florida State has been particularly vulnerable early through the air, with opponents completing 76.1% of first-quarter passes.
Overall the Seminoles have allowed nine passing touchdowns against three interceptions and FBS opponents have averaged roughly 7.3 yards per dropback against Florida State.
6. Florida State does not score a rushing touchdown
Florida State has 16 rushing touchdowns, 10 from Daniels, and 15 of them have come in the red zone. Miami has allowed one rushing touchdown on 116 carries, and inside the red zone, opponents have rushed 12 times for 14 yards (1.17 per carry) with one touchdown.
Teams have reached Miami's red zone only eight times in five games. This one has potential to be spoiled in garbage time, but this is about being bold and Miami's run defense has been stout.
7. Miami wins by at least 28 points
Miami is favored by 21.5 points, and their average victory margin is 39.8 points, the best in the country and the largest through five games in program history. Only Wake Forest has finished within 28 points.
Last week the Seminoles led Louisville 14-0 before being outscored 44-6 the rest of the way.
If Miami can do everything already mentioned, a final margin in the range of 49-10 makes sense.
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