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A Miami win over Syracuse could secure CFP berth before ACC Championship Game

Multiple upsets in week 13 place Miami in a situation where a win over Syracuse could secure a College Football Playoff berth no matter what happens in the ACC Championship Game.

By Alan Rubenstein

Nov 23, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal look son from the sideline against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Nov 23, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal look son from the sideline against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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Alabama, Mississippi and Texas A&M each losing their third game of the 2024 season could put Miami in a win and in, lose and out position versus Syracuse on Saturday. If Miami beats Syracuse the Hurricanes earn a berth into the ACC Championship game. If Miami loses at Syracuse, Clemson will play SMU in the conference title contest.

Upset losses by BYU and Colorado were also potentially helpful to Miami. BYU fell to 9-2 overall and Colorado dropped to 8-3 after upset losses in the Big XII. Miami should move up in the College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday night. Indiana losing at Ohio State should also benefit Miami.

Miami was eighth in the week 13 CFP rankings. Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State will remain the top four teams in the CFP rankings after winning on Saturday. How far will Indiana and the ranked SEC teams who lost this weekend fall is the biggest question entering the reveal on Tuesday night.

Notre Dame should move up one spot into fifth after beating Army 49-14. Miami should pass Alabama and Indiana in the rankings and move up to sixth. Alabama, Mississippi and Texas A&M were all but likely eliminated from CFP contention with their third loss, depending on results in week 14.

Miami is eighth in the Associated Press Top 25 and seventh in the US LBM Coaches Polls entering week 14. The College Football Playoff committee has valued Miami more than the polls over the last few weeks. That should continue when the week 14 CFP rankings are released on Tuesday night.

Miami is 10th in the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI projects Miami with a 47.7 percent chance to win out and a 79.4 percent chance to make the CFP. Miami is sixth in the FPI strength of record, is 59th in strength of schedule and has the 19th-best remaining strength of schedule.

If Miami beats Syracuse on Saturday their SOS will improve by playing SMU in the ACC Championship Game. A Miami versus SMU ACC Championship game should guarantee two teams from the conference making the playoffs. Miami likely has a win and in the CFP, lose and out on Saturday at Syracuse.

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