In case you somehow forgot, because it seems that many people have, Miami beat Notre Dame in Week 1 of the college football season. Yes, every week in the College Football Playoff Rankings, Miami has been stuck well behind the Fighting Irish. Even as the Hurricanes inch ever closer, rising up to No. 12 in last week’s edition, the head-to-head win has yet to carry the day.
Yet, Miami fans could still get the last laugh against Notre Dame after conference championship week. Miami, of course, missed out on the ACC Championship Game in favor of a five-loss Duke team because of a common opponent tiebreaker in the league. So the ACC is stuck as a one-bid league, if it gets a bid at all. The Big 12, though, has a path to two spots, and Vegas seems to think that would be at Notre Dame’s expense.
Betting odds favor Alabama to make the College Football Playoff over Miami
No. 11 BYU is getting another shot at Texas Tech on Saturday after losing the regular-season matchup. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are locked into the CFP field, even with a loss. A loss by Texas Tech would, however, clog up another at-large spot, forcing the committee to potentially decide between No. 10 Alabama and No. 9 Notre Dame for the final at-large spot. If Alabama beats Georgia for the SEC Title, there will be no discussion; Notre Dame will get bumped.
So, Alabama’s chances of winning the SEC certainly factor into the odds, but at FanDuel, Alabama is +920 to miss the CFP, while Notre Dame is +285. Those odds have moved a bit with action heading into Tuesday night’s reveal, but when they opened, Notre Dame’s odds were nearly the inverse of BYU’s odds to beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game, +400.
Miami’s odds to make the field are +540, so the Hurricanes are a longer shot to make the field than Duke is to miss it, but there’s still a chance that both teams are left out, and while that wouldn’t be great, it would be a small consolation for frustrated Miami fans arguing that the games have to matter.
Tuesday night, in a lot of ways, could determine Notre Dame’s fate. If the Irish stay ahead of Alabama, then there’s a chance that Alabama, as the loser of the SEC Championship Game, gets left out because it will be hard for the Tide to jump Notre Dame after a loss. However, if Alabama heads to Atlanta one spot clear of Notre Dame, then it will likely stay there. Last year’s committee was reluctant to punish conference championship game losers, and that will be especially true when weighed against a team like Notre Dame that doesn’t play in a conference.