Throughout the first month of the season, Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus have praised the performance of Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor and the Miami defensive line. Chadwick wrote a story last week stating "Why Rueben Bain Jr. should be the Heisman favorite through four weeks."
Wasserman asked "Can Florida State’s creative run game work around Miami’s elite defensive front?" in the PFF preview of the Hurricanes and the Seminoles. Florida State hiring Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and adding Boston College transfer quarterback Thomas Castellanos meant more emphasis on the run in 2025.
Florida State is second nationally, averaging 336.25 rushing yards per game, third with 6.66 yards per carry and first with 20 touchdowns on the ground. The Seminoles have a diverse rushing offense with no one ranked in the top 100 individually in rushing yards per game.
The depth and versatility have allowed Florida State to rank in the top three in expected points added and explosive run rate per Wasserman. Florida State is second nationally with 46 runs for 10 yards or more, 14 of 20 or more, eighth with six or 30 or more, tied for seventh with four of 40 or more and tied for fourth with three of 50 or more.
"Malzahn’s ability to create space for his ball carriers, particularly on the edges, has made Florida State’s rushing attack one of the most explosive in the country...This matchup on the ground will likely decide Florida State’s offensive fate in this game."Dalton Wasserman, Pro Football Focus
Florida State has accomplished its gaudy rushing numbers without playing a top 50 run defense. The Seminoles have run for at least 230 yards and 4.69 YPC in every 2025 game. Five Seminoles have between 168 and 234 yards rushing in 2025.
Miami should be the best defensive line Florida State plays in 2025. Wasserman noted that Bain has a 92.6 run defense grade and Akheem Mesidor is at 86.4 in 2025. Miami is second nationally with a 93.7 run defense grade to Texas Tech.
Miami enters the game at Florida State eighth nationally, allowing 76.25 rushing YPG, 12th with opponents averaging 2.61 YPC and tied for seventh with only two rushing TDs against them. If Miami can keep Castellanos in the pocket and force him to throw, their odds of beating FSU increase exponentially.