If Duke beats Virginia on Saturday, wins at North Carolina on November 22 and against Wake Forest on November 29, the Blue Devils would earn a berth in the ACC Championship Game. Former Miami head coach Manny Diaz has Duke in a great position to reach the ACC Championship Game before Mario Cristobal.
Cristobal was hired as the Miami head coach a few weeks after Diaz was fired by the Hurricanes after the 2021 regular season. Diaz was 21–15 overall and 16–9 in the ACC in three seasons as Miami's head coach. In nearly two full seasons at Duke, Diaz is 14–8 overall and 9–4 in the ACC.
Cristobal is 29–18 overall and 15–14 in the ACC in nearly four seasons. Diaz has fewer ACC losses in his combined tenures at Miami and Duke, in nine less conference games coached than Diaz. Miami and Cristobal beat Duke and Diaz 53-31 in a wild game in 2024 in the only meeting between the two head coaches.
Duke has had a mercruial 2025 season. Georgia Tech beat Duke 27-18 in October to give the Blue Devils their only ACC loss. A 95-yard fumble return for a touchdown by Georgia Tech in the first quarter was a pivotal play that cost Duke, despite them rallying for a 10-7 lead in the third quarter.
There's one other thing I find remarkable. Cristobal relentlessly complained about how little talent Diaz left him with (fair point). Mario a better recruiter. Yet Diaz 25-13 in ACC games, 4-1 this year at Duke to Mario's 14-14, 2-2. Make it make sense! https://t.co/QagwAWZVYi
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) November 2, 2025
Duke beat North Carolina State, California and Clemson for its ACC wins. In non-conference, turnovers doomed Duke in losses to Tulane, Illinois and Connecticut (last week). Duke beat Football Championship Subdivision Elon 45-17 in its season opener for its only 2025 non-conference win.
The ESPN Football Power Index gives Duke a 16.0 percent chance to win out. Duke is the second favorite by the ESPN FPI with a 20.9 percent chance to win the ACC. The Blue Devils have a 2.2 percent chance to make the CFP per the ESPN FPI. If Duke wins the ACC, there is no guarantee it would make the CFP.
It is a possibility that two non-power conference teams could pass Duke in the CFP Rankings. South Florida of the American Athletic Conference is currently 24th in the CFP Rankings. James Madison is ranked in both national polls and would likely be selected for the CFP if they win the Sun Belt and finish with one loss.
Miami is a long shot as the 15th-ranked team in the CFP. If Miami wins out and teams in front of them lose, the Hurricanes would put themselves in position to earn a CFP at-large berth. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with a 50.6 percent chance to win out and 13.2 percent to earn a CFP berth.