Miami is a 20.5-point favorite for its game on Saturday versus Duke. This marks the second consecutive week Miami is a 20.5 favorite after beating Florida State 36-14 at the same number versus Florida State last week per FanDuel. Miami is minus 1,450 on the money line and Duke is plus 810.
The over is minus 112 at 54.5 points and the under is minus 108. Miami is 5-3 versus the spread in 2024 and Duke is 5-2-1. The game should come down to how well Duke can slow Miami offensively. Six Miami games have gone over, one was under and the other pushed so far in 2024.
Three Duke games have gone over this season and Duke has gone under. As to be expected from a Manny Diaz-led team, Duke is a defensive-oriented team. The Blue Devils have to figure out how to turn turnovers into points. Duke forced six SMU turnovers last week and did not score any points off of those.
Miami enters the game on Saturday first nationally averaging 48.3 points per game and 560.8 total yards per game. Duke is 20th allowing 18.6 PPG and 32nd allowing 327.0 yards per game. Defensively Miami needs to get its regenerate defensive pressure that hasn't been as productive over the last month.
Manny Diaz will return to Miami for the first time since he was fired in 2021. Ironically the last game Diaz coached for Miami was a 47-10 win over Duke in 2021. Now Diaz is on the opposite sideline. In a game that could have been a distraction, Diaz and Mario Cristobal downplayed the significance of the matchup.
Cristobal has Miami focused on the game each week. The motto for Miami in 2024 has become to be 1-0 each week. Miami knows what is in front of them. Win each week for the remainder of the season and Miami will earn an ACC Championship Game berth and likely clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Predictions
The spread is a huge number. Miami on the money line and Duke and the points seem like the best bets for Saturday. The over/under should be tight. Duke's offense versus the Miami defense will be the battle to watch on Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium.