This is brutal. Despite having a 10-2 record, the Miami Hurricanes are likely on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff. They were ranked No. 12 overall on Tuesday night. While that ranking could get them in some years, the cut line is the No. 10 spot. This is because Miami is not playing for an ACC championship and cannot get an automatic qualifier spot in that way. Is there any hope left?
Well, ESPN's Heather Dinich proposed this theory on Tuesday on how Miami moves past Notre Dame.
"[The College Football Playoff Selection Committee is] saying that they're not going to move teams around, right? But if BYU moves out, by default, Miami is going to bump up a spot. If they bump them up a spot and they're next to Notre Dame, do they flip them then because of the head-to-head? That's a very curious scenario."
In a peculiar way, chalk prevailing actually gives Miami its best case for making the playoff to date...
Heather Dinich gives a long shot scenario of how Miami could possibly make the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/6fLw0R7zSk
— Grant Speaks (@GrantSpeaks1) December 3, 2025
If BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title bout, the Cougars will drop down from No. 11 and be worse than the first team out. Miami would then move up a spot, where it will be judgement day between them and Notre Dame, a team the Hurricanes beat way back in Week 1. The Selection Committee also positioned itself to not realistically allow Alabama to fall out with a title bout loss.
To put it simply, Miami should be rooting hard for Texas Tech, Georgia, and quite honestly, Virginia.
What needs to happen for Miami to make the College Football Playoff now
For Miami to effectively move up two spots from No. 12 to No. 10 to be above the cut line, as the criteria of the College Football Playoff requires the five highest-ranked conference champions, the Hurricanes need for Texas Tech to beat BYU in the Big 12 Championship, first and foremost. If that happens, then other factors could come into play. Let's now look at the other power conferences...
While the Big Ten Championship between Ohio State and Indiana has no impact on the Hurricanes' fate, there is a non-zero chance Alabama could fall out of the picture with a blowout loss to Georgia in Atlanta. That would give them three on the season. It is highly unlikely, but it is possible. Right now, ESPN's FPI is giving Alabama a 96.3-percent chance to make the playoff field behind the eight locks.
Notre Dame has the 10th best odds of making it in at 58.7 percent, with the Virginia Cavaliers (56.3) and the James Madison Dukes (50.3) not far off their trail. Miami is still somewhat in contention to make the playoff at 11 percent. While it is better than Boise State (2.1), UNLV (1.2) and Kennesaw State (0.2), North Texas (49.8), Tulane (40.0) and BYU (34.0) all have better chances to make the field.
Overall, Miami needs Texas Tech to beat BYU again, hope that Georgia wins its rematch with Alabama in convincing fashion, and for the Selection Committee to actually value the head-to-head victory over Notre Dame for once. As far as Virginia winning the ACC is concerned, that would at least give the conference a quality team in the field, potentially helping elevate Miami's case in some manner.
For now, Miami fans must hope for a second BYU loss to really make the Selection Committee work.