The projections for Miami winning games against SMU, Syracuse, North Carolina State and Pittsburgh have dropped entering week seven per the ESPN Football Power Index. Miami has a better projection for beating Louisville, Stanford and Virginia Tech over its final seven games per the ESPN FPI.
Miami went from an 83.8 percent chance to defeat Louisville to 84.2, increased from 97.0 to 97.2 versus Stanford and from 86.5 to 88.8 percent over Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech is the only one of those three games on the road in the penultimate game of the 2025 regular season.
Miami's projection to win at SMU fell from 74.6 to 73.5 at SMU, from 94.8 to 94.6 over Syracuse, 90.1 to 89.3 versus North Carolina State and the biggest move from 86.5 to 79.4 in the final regular season game on November 29 at Pittsburgh.
Louisville is the highest-rated remaining team on the 2025 Miami regular-season schedule. The Cardinals are 37th in the ESPN FPI. Pittsburgh, based on the projected chance to win, is the toughest game for Miami. The Panthers are 48th in the FPI.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to Win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/17 | Louisville | 4-0 | 84.2 | 83.8 |
10/25 | Stanford | 2-3 | 97.2 | 97.0 |
11/1 | At SMU | 2-2 | 73.5 | 74.6 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 3-2 | 94.6 | 94.8 |
11/15 | NC State | 3-2 | 89.3 | 90.1 |
11/22 | At Virginia Tech | 2-3 | 88.8 | 86.5 |
11/29 | At Pittsburgh | 2-2 | 79.4 | 86.5 |
Among the other remaining teams on the 2025 Miami regular season schedule, SMU is 39th in the ESPN FPI, North Carolina State is 58th, Virginia Tech is 67th, Syracuse is 69th and Stanford is 86th. Miami currently has the 15th strength of schedule nationally, which is second in the ACC to Florida State, who is 10th.
Miami has the 66th remaining SOS. Only Duke, California, North Carolina and Virginia are below Miami in the ACC in remaining SOS. North Carolina State, with the 24th remaining SOS nationally, has the most difficult remaining slate in the ACC.
The ESPN FPI projects Miami to finish with 11.6 wins and 1.1 losses in its simulations, a 28.7 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated and a 55.7 percent chance to win the ACC. Duke and Virginia are the only teams with a better than 10.0 percent chance to win the ACC other than Miami.