Miami has an improved chance to win its next four games at SMU, versus Syracuse and North Carolina State, and at Virginia Tech, according to the ESPN Football Power Index. Pittsburgh is the only game in which Miami has a decreased chance to win over the projections of last week.
Miami improved from a 64.6 percent chance to win on Saturday at SMU last week to 70.0 percent in the updated projections. Miami won 42-7 over Stanford on Saturday. SMU lost 13-12 at Wake Forest on Saturday. Miami has opened as an 11.5-point favorite in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
At 95.7 percent, Syracuse on November 8 is projected as the game Miami has the best chance of winning on its remaining schedule. Syracuse has lost three consecutive games since winning at Clemson on November 20. Syraucse hosts North Carolina on Friday before playing at Miami.
North Carolina State has lost four consecutive games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. The last two North Carolina State losses have been by an average of 24 points. Miami has a 90.8 percent chance of beating North Carolina State.
Date | Opponent | Record | Projection | Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
11/1 | At SMU | 5-3 | 70.0 | 64.6 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 3-5 | 95.7 | 94.5 |
11/15 | NC State | 4-4 | 90.8 | 88.8 |
11/22 | At Virginia Tech | 3-5 | 89.0 | 88.2 |
11/29 | At Pittsburgh | 6-2 | 71.5 | 71.7 |
Virginia Tech is the first of two road games for Miami to conclude the 2025 regular season. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with an 89.0 percent chance to win at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 3-2 under interim head coach Philip Montgomery.
Pittsburgh has risen to the most difficult remaining 2025 regular season game for Miami with a 71.5 percent chance to win. That is down from a 71.7 percent chance last week. The game at Pittsburgh could decide an ACC Championship game berth.
Pittsburgh is currently 4-1 in the ACC, a game behind Georgia Tech and a half game behind Virginia. Louisville beat Pittsburgh in September. Miami and Pittsburgh have to hope Louisville loses another ACC game to earn an ACC Championship Game berth. The only ACC loss for Louisville was to Virginia, which doesn't play Miami or Pittsburgh.