Miami has an increased chance of winning each of its next six games in the ESPN Football Power Index in the update after week seven games concluded on Saturday. Only the final game of the regular season at Pittsburgh on November 29 decreased its projection for Miami winning after week seven.
Miami has an above 80 percent chance to win every game except November 1 at SMU and at Pittsburgh, according to the ESPN FPI update. The Hurricanes have at least a 90 percent chance to win in four of their remaining games per the ESPN FPI.
Beginning on Friday versus Louisville, Miami has an 84.9 percent chance to win. Miami was projected with an 84.2 percent chance to beat Louisville after week six. The 97.7 percent chance for Miami to beat Stanford on October 25 is the highest projection for the Hurricanes in a remaining 2025 regular season game.
Miami had a slight increase from a 73.5 percent chance to win at SMU in the update last week to 73.8 percent in the post week seven ESPN FPI projections. Miami improved from a 94.6 percent chance to beat Syracuse last week to a 94.8 percent chance after week seven games.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to Win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/17 | Louisville | 4-1 | 84.9 | 84.2 |
10/25 | Stanford | 2-4 | 97.7 | 97.2 |
11/1 | At SMU | 4-2 | 73.8 | 73.5 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 3-3 | 94.8 | 94.6 |
11/15 | NC State | 4-3 | 90.0 | 89.3 |
11/22 | At Virginia Tech | 2-5 | 90.0 | 88.8 |
11/29 | At Pittsburgh | 4-2 | 78.4 | 79.4 |
The projections for Miami beating North Carolina State rose from 89.3 percent after the week six games were complete to 90.0 percent after the week seven games. Miami is also projected with a 90.0 percent chance to win its penultimate 2025 regular season game at Virginia Tech after it was 88.8 percent last week.
Games at Pittsburgh and SMU should be the most difficult for Miami, as the ESPN FPI projections predict. After winning two of its four non-conference games, SMU has started 2-0 in the ACC and is firmly in the competition to return to the ACC Championship Game in its second season in the conference.
Pittsburgh has won two consecutive games to improve to four wins and two losses overall and two victories and one defeat in the ACC. The Panthers are also in the race for an ACC Championship Game berth. Louisville has one ACC loss with Stanford, NC State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse all with 1-2 conference records.