The Jai Lucas Year 1 turnaround in Coral Gables has hit a few snags recently in ACC play. The Hurricanes fell to Cal at home to close out January and, before that, dropped two mid-January games to Clemson and Florida State.
Yet, Miami is leaps and bounds ahead of where it was last season and could be on the verge of notching the signature win its NCAA Tournament resume desperately needs. In fact, ESPN Analytics predicts that it will happen on Tuesday night when Miami hosts No. 11 UNC.
ESPN likes Miami chances against #14 North Carolina on Tuesday. 👀 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WBfDjbhBtY
— TrintonBreeze (@TrintonBreeze) February 9, 2026
Miami predicted to knock off North Carolina at home on Tuesday night
The North Carolina Tar Heels jumped to the No. 11 spot in the country with Monday’s AP Poll release after a shocking 71-68 comeback win over No. 4 Duke in Chapel Hill. The victory was the fifth-straight for Hubert Davis’s team, which has rebounded spectacularly from a midseason lull.
However, while the Tar Heels have ascended to the cusp of the top 10 in the AP Poll, the advanced metrics don’t have those same warm and fuzzy feelings. KenPom ranks UNC No. 27 in the country, narrowly trailing Utah State and Saint Louis by net rating, despite a 19-4 record with losses to Michigan State, SMU, Stanford, and Cal.
Top freshman Caleb Wilson kept the Tar Heels afloat on Saturday night with unreal shot-making in the first half before Seth Trimble closed out the game with a three-pointer as time expired. With Wilson and Henri Veesaar patrolling the paint, UNC is a difficult matchup defensively, but it’s far from an unbeatable team, and ESPN’s analytics reflect that.
Miami is 43rd in KenPom, surprisingly only 16 spots behind the Tar Heels. With transfers Malik Renaeu and Tre Donaldson leading the way, Lucas’s team is sitting at 18-5 and could be trending in the right direction.
While he was at Duke, Lucas was Jon Scheyer’s ace recruiter, and that skillset landed his new program a five-star wing, Shelton Henderson. While he’s understandably been overshadowed by Wilson, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, and others, Henderson has started to come to life recently, shooting the ball much better from the field in ACC play.
In Saturday’s win over Boston College, Henderson went for 19 points on 8-11 shooting. That outing came on the heels of a 16-point game in the loss to Cal on 7-11 from the field. As Henderson's efficiency improves, so will Miami, and if he has a big night on Tuesday, Miami could be well-positioned to upset the Tar Heels.