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Florida State at Miami: final odds and predictions

When the season began no one could have foreseen that the biggest spread for Miami in a 2024 ACC game would be against Florida State.

ByAlan Rubenstein|
Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes center Matt Lee (55) about to snap the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes center Matt Lee (55) about to snap the ball during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Miami and Florida State enter their game on Saturday night with polar opposite seasons. The Hurricanes are 7-0 and ranked sixth nationally. Florida State is 1-6 after finishing 13-1 with an ACC Championship in 2023. Miami is a 20.5-point favorite over Florida State per FanDuel.

Florida State is plus 920 and Miami is minus 1800 on the money for Saturday. The over/under is 54.5. Florida State has one of the worst offenses nationally and Miami is one of the best. Miami is second nationally averaging 48.3 points per game and first putting up 577.3 total yards per game.

Florida State is 132nd averaging 276.0 total yards per game and averaging 15.0 PPG. The Seminoles are the only FBS team nationally that has not scored more than 21 points in a game this season. Miami has not scored fewer than 38 points in a game. The Hurricanes have scored 40 points five times, 50 four times and over 60 once.

Miami is 4-3 versus the spread in 2024 but 1-3 against the number in ACC games. The Hurricanes covered the spread for the first time in over a month and in the ACC last week at Louisville as a 4.5-point favorite. Florida State is 2-5 versus the spread in 2024. 1-2 as an underdog, 2-4 in the ACC and 0-2 on the road.

Six Miami games have gone over this season. The 50-15 Miami win at South Florida was a push with the total. The Florida State 42-16 loss at SMU was the only contest involving the Seminoles to go over in 2024. SMU nearly eclipsed the 46.5-point total by itself.

The point spread shifted 36 points from 2023 when Florida State was a 15.5-point favorite over Miami. Florida State won 27-20. Miami's six more wins than Florida State entering the game on Saturday is the biggest discrepancy in the history of the series per Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press.

Predictions

The spread is a huge number. All indications entering the game are that Miami should beat Florida State easily. Miami and the money line is easier to trust than the point spread and the over. Miami has the potential to reach the over nearly by themselves. Miami should roll and don't expect Mario Cristobal to let up

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