Florida State versus Miami odds and projected outcomes wild 10-year flips
The projected outcomes from ESPN and bookmakers odds over the past few seasons have vacillated significantly over the last 10 years of the Florida State versus Miami rivarly. The point spread from 2023 to 2024 has a 37-point difference. Florida State won 27-20 as a 15.5-point favorite in 2023.
Miami is favored by 21.5 points in 2024 per ESPN. The furthest the spread goes back is to 2022 when Florida State beat Miami 45-3 as a 6.5-point favorite. Florida State began the 2022 game with a 58.5 percent chance to beat Miami. Inefficient quarterback play doomed Miami to the blowout loss in 2022.
Jacurri Brown, Jake Garcia and an injured Tyler Van Dyke combined to complete 10 passes in 19 attempts for 62 yards with two interceptions. Two years later Cam Ward is first nationally averaging 362.6 passing yards per game and with 25 touchdown tosses. Florida State has received poor quarterback play in 2024.
Florida State is 89th nationally averaging 203.1 passing yards per game, 129th with completing 52.2 percent of their pass attempts and with a 105.38 passer rating, 118th with six TD passes, 113th with nine interceptions thrown and 122nd averaging 6.2 yards per attempt.
Year | UM Win Probability | Miami Point Spead | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 45.9 | N/A | 20-19 loss |
2017 | 35.3 | N/A | 24-20 win |
2018 | 89.4 | N/A | 28-27 win |
2019 | 38.9 | N/A | 27-10 win |
2020 | 60.0 | N/A | 52-10 win |
2021 | 63.3 | N/A | 31-28 loss |
2022 | 37.7 | Plus 6.5 | 45-3 loss |
2023 | 14.4 | Plus 15.5 | 27-20 loss |
2024 | 91.5 | Minus 21.5 | TDB |
In the nine years going back to 2016 that ESPN has their win probabilities published, Miami had an average of 52.9 percent to beat Florida State. Those numbers are skewed by Miami being given an 89.4 percent chance to win in 2018 when they won 28-27 and in 2024 at 91.4 percent.
Florida State had more than a 50 percent projection in five of the last nine meetings with Miami and the Hurricanes four. Florida State has a 0.5-point advantage in the three years the point spreads are listed by ESPN. The Hurricanes and Seminoles have split the eight meetings with the win projections ESPN has.
Miami is 3-1 versus Florida State when having over a 50 percent win projection and 2-3 in the last eight seasons. If the ESPN Football Power Index and the odds are accurate Miami should win easily. Rivalry games are often difficult to predict. Florida State and Miami each have a blowout win in the last two games at Hard Rock Stadium.
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