After all this time — 11 weeks of college football, the oddsmakers have sort of waved the white flag and returned to where we were several weeks ago with Jeremiah Smith as the favorite at +200. The Ohio State wide receiver is slightly above Darian Mensah (+270) and CJ Carr (+290).
This is a pretty significant shift from where the odds were immediately after the Miami Hurricanes lost to Notre Dame. Carr was immediately placed as the Heisman favorite at +190 with Mensah and Smith both directly behind him at +320. But over the days that have followed, Smith is back in front, and that's where he's been for most of the year.
How the two Heisman betting favorites stack up after Week 10 👀 pic.twitter.com/eGgBvPQCGc
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 12, 2026
I've repeatedly said that Carr's overall body of work isn't Heisman caliber. It's good, and he has perfectly fine numbers from week-to-week, but Heisman quarterbacks in recent years put up eye-popping numbers. That's not Carr's game.
He was excellent against Miami with 319 yards and three touchdowns, but the yard total was his season-high by far and only the third time he's cracked 250 yards this year. By comparison, Mensah has had four games over 325 yards this season and only twice has he thrown for less than 250. In the Heisman world, numbers do matter.
And that's why Smith is the odds favorite again. Ohio State is struggling, but that has nothing to do with Smith. In the two games following Julian Sayin's injury, Smith has 17 catches for 216 yards and two touchdowns. There's not much of a drop-off.
The top Heisman contenders according to FanDuel
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+200)
Miami QB Darian Mensah (+270)
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (+290)
Utah QB Devon Dampier (+1300)
Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker (+1500)
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (+1600)
Alabama QB Keelon Russell (+2500)
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers (+4500)
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Malachi Toney is off the board, but he should be in New York
Toney will miss his second game this week, but the hope is that the dynamic talent can return to the Hurricanes for the ACC Championship Game at the earliest. He's been taken off the board for Heisman favorite because of the injury and that's understandable.
However, that doesn't mean that Toney isn't deserving of being in New York City on the second Saturday of December as a Heisman finalist. From where I stand, there was no question that Toney was going to win the Heisman Trophy if he had continued at the pace he was playing over the previous five games, where he had 45 catches for 581 yards and eight touchdowns. That's a full season for a lot of wide receivers!
We can't project what Toney would have done last week against Notre Dame or what he would have done in the final three games of the season. His week-to-week efforts up to the time of his injury suggest he would have continued to put up massive numbers, but let's get back to the original point — Toney, with his 8-game body of work, did enough to be a Heisman finalist by definition.
Whether he gets there or not remains to be seen, but the same people from Miami that created his Heisman campaign should continue to push for Toney's inclusion among the finalists. If you look at the numbers, he's earned it.
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