Louisville's 24-21 upset of No. 2 Miami didn't just hand the Hurricanes their first loss; it blew the ACC title chase wide open and shuffled the playoff outcomes heading into late October. The Cardinals picked off Carson Beck four times and closed it out with a late interception, a result that dropped Miami to 5-1 (1-1 ACC) and vaulted Louisville into the ACC conversation — and into the AP Top 25.
Miami now no longer controls its own destiny. The Canes must win out and have either Georgia Tech or Virginia (or both) drop a conference game. If GT and UVA both stay perfect in conference play, Miami can't reach the ACC Championship Game.
Georgia Tech and Virginia don't play each other, Miami, or SMU, so they can both run the table in conference. Georgia Tech's remaining ACC games are Syracuse, at NC State, at Boston College, Pitt; Virginia's are at North Carolina, at Cal, Wake Forest, at Duke, Virginia Tech.
Where the ACC standings sit now
Through Week 8, Georgia Tech is the ACC's highest ranked team in the AP Poll at 7-0 and is 4-0 in ACC play after grinding out a 27-18 win at Duke. Virginia (6-1, 3-0) continued to win with a 22-20 escape victory over Washington State. SMU (5-2) quietly sits 3-0 in conference play after a 35-24 win at Clemson. Pitt (5-2) improved to 3-1 in the ACC by beating Syracuse. Miami (5-1) is 1–1 in the ACC and is behind Duke (4-3, 3-1), Louisville (5-1, 2–1), Cal (5-2, 2-1) and Stanford (3-4, 2-2) in that order. That leaves eight programs with zero or one league loss as October continues on.
Miami's path (and the importance of SMU)
Because the ACC crowns its top two teams (no divisions), Miami's cleanest route is simple: win out and let the standings sort themselves out. The remaining slate — Stanford, at SMU, Syracuse, NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt — includes a big opportunity: Nov. 1 at SMU. With not playing GT and UVA, this game against SMU becomes the most important.
The Mustangs are also important for who they play outside of Miami. Despite not playing GT and UVA, SMU still hosts Louisville and Cal; they're the only team that has an unbeaten conference record that plays both of those contenders, making them a team that Miami fans will root for after their matchup on Nov. 1.
Practically, if Miami wins out and SMU — or any other ACC teams — beats Louisville, then the Hurricanes only need either GT/UVA to drop a conference game to make the ACC title game.