Indiana is over a touchdown favorite for Monday night’s national championship showdown with Miami at Hard Rock Stadium, the Hurricanes’ home field. The undefeated Hoosiers entered the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 team in the country and have only entrenched their standing as the sport’s top team. Miami is the last team with a chance to knock Curt Cignetti from that perch.
For all of Indiana’s dominance in the CFP, the Hoosiers aren’t unbeatable. Ohio State pushed them to the limit in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Fernando Mendoza needed some serious heroics in the regular season to get past Iowa and Penn State. However, if Indiana can replicate one particular aspect of its 56-22 CFP semifinal win over Oregon, then Miami won’t stand a chance.
Miami can’t let Indiana’s receivers dominate the national championship game
Mendoza is the best quarterback in college football, and the Heisman Trophy has reached a new level in the CFP. Through his team’s two wins, he has more touchdown passes than incompletions. That absurd stat isn’t just a testament to his impeccable accuracy; it’s also a reflection of his dominant wide receivers.
In the CFP semis, Indiana wideouts Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker combined to go a perfect 4-for-4 on contested catch opportunities.
Sarratt hauled in three, displaying his and Mendoza’s mastery of the back-shoulder throw as he caught seven passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns in the game. Becker added two grabs for 48 yards and a touchdown. Becker, a sophomore and one of Cignetti’s original recruits to Indiana, has emerged as an elite downfield threat, using his 6-foot-4, 209-pound frame to haul in 11 of his 13 contest catch opportunities this season, an absurd rate.
Miami has big physical cornerbacks who may be able match the 6-foot-2, 213-pound Sarratt, Becker, and 6-foot, 200-pound Omar Cooper Jr., and that may be the key to the game. If Miami’s DBs don’t hold up, then the Hurricanes and defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman will be out of answers.
Right now, Mendoza’s 50/50 balls are about a 90/10 proposition, maybe better than that. That makes the offense impossible to stop because even if you’re able to disrupt their RPO and quick passing game with man coverage, pressure Mendoza with a four-man pass rush, and slow down the run game, Indiana still has a reliable way to move the ball downfield and bail itself out of bad situations. However, if you can take away the back-shoulder throw to Sarratt, which is a go-to for Indiana on late downs, or knock away a few of Mendoza’s deep shots to Becker, you’ll have a shot to let Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor take over the game at the line of scrimmage.
The margins are slim as a 7.5-point underdog. Miami doesn’t have to play a perfect game to win, but Mario Cristobal’s team at least has to prevent the Hoosiers from submitting their A+ performance because the best version of this Indiana team might be unbeatable.