The FanDuel Sportsbook lists Miami as a 13.5-point favorite over Louisville on Friday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Taking the points with Louisville is -108. Laying the points with Miami is -112. Louisville is +420 on the money line and Miami is -560.
The over/under for Louisville at Miami is 50.5. Taking the over is -115 and the under is -105. The over/under for Louisville at Miami opened at 53.5 on Sunday. Miami was a 14.5-point favorite over Louisville in the Sunday update.
Louisville is 1-4 against the spread this season, despite being 4-1 overall. Miami is 4-1 against the spread and 5-0 straight up. Louisville has been favored in every game this season. Friday at Miami is the second 2025 road game for Louisville. Louisville won 34-27 as a 3.0-point favorite at Pittsburgh on September 27.
Miami has been a favorite in every game except for their 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the season opener. The only game Miami did not cover in 2025 was as a 53.5-point favorite over Bethune-Cookman in a 45-3 victory. Miami is playing its fifth home game in six 2025 contests.
Three out of Louisville's five 2025 games have gone over. Two Miami games have gone over in 2025. The 50.5 point total is the lowest for a 2025 Louisville game. Miami had a previous low over/under of 50.5 points against Notre Dame.
Louisville and Miami have a history of high-scoring games in their series. The last four Louisville versus Miami games have an average total of 81.5 points. Miami beat Louisville 52-45 in 2024 with an over/under of 60.5. A 50.5-point total would be the lowest for Louisville versus Miami since 2014.
Game Predictions
Miami has gotten off to big leads against Notre Dame, Florida and Florida State and had trouble closing. The Hurricanes pulled away with two touchdowns in the final four minutes in a 26-7 win for a slight back door cover as an 8.5 point favorite over the Gators.
At -560 Miami has about an 84.85 percent chance to beat Louisville. The money line seems to be a safer bet than the point spread. Miami did cover against ND, Florida and FSU. The over/under is tight, but Louisville and Miami have better defenses in 2025 and the game seems more likely to go under.