Miami is a significant favorite in all nine of their remaining 2025 games per the projections from the ESPN Football Power Index. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with 10.9 wins, 1.8 losses, a 12.1 percent chance to win out, 51.2 percent to win the ACC and 58.5 percent to earn a College Football Playoff berth.
Miami has a 75.2 percent chance to beat Florida on Saturday. The lowest chance Miami has of winning their remaining games is 66.2 percent at Florida State on October 4. The highest projected chance Miami has of winning is 94.7 percent versus Stanford on October 25.
The only other game the ESPN FPI projects Miami with under a 75 percent chance to win is at SMU on November 1. Miami is projected with a 67.9 percent chance to defeat SMU. The Mustangs are not as good in 2025 as they were in 2024 when they played in the inaugural 12-team CFP.
Miami has the highest projection of any team nationally to win its conference and the second-best chance of winning out, after Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Mississippi are the only teams that have a better projected chance of making the CFP than Miami.
Date | Opponent | Percentage to Win |
|---|---|---|
9/20 | Florida | 75.2 |
10/4 | At Florida State | 66.1 |
10/17 | Louisville | 83.6 |
10/25 | Stanford | 94.7 |
11/1 | At SMU | 67.9 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 92.0 |
11/15 | North Carolina State | 86.5 |
11/22 | Virginia Tech | 87.5 |
11/29 | Pittsburgh | 80.8 |
Miami is one of only seven teams nationally with better than a 50 percent chance to make the CFP per the ESPN FPI projections. Miami has the seventh-best strength of record, is 11th in the FPI, the 55th strength of schedule, 61st remaining SOS, fifth in game control and seventh in average in-game win probability.
After playing Florida, Miami plays its first road game in 2025 at Florida State on October 4. Miami does not leave the state of Florida until playing at SMU on November 1. Its final two road games of the season are at Virginia Tech on November 22 and Pittsburgh on November 29.