The ESPN Football Power Index projects Miami to finish with 11.1 wins and 1.6 losses in 2025 in its most recent update. Miami is projected with a 16.3 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated, 100.0 percent to win six games, 51.1 percent to win the ACC and 60.7 percent to earn a College Football Playoff berth.
The ESPN FPI projects Miami with a 10.3 percent chance to make the CFP Championship Game and 5.0 percent to win the title. Miami is a prohibitive favorite in all eight of its remaining 2025 games by the ESPN FPI. The game-by-game projections vary from week four.
Miami is a bigger favorite in four games, a small favorite in three and one stayed the same as week four in the ESPN FPI. Coming off the week five bye, Miami went from being projected with a 66.1 percent chance to win at Florida State in week six to 60.2 percent entering week five games.
After their second bye in week seven, Miami is projected with an 83.5 percent chance to beat Louisville on October 17, from 83.6 percent in projections entering week four. Miami is projected to have its best chance to win a remaining game against Stanford on October 25 at 96.2 percent.
Date | Opponent | Record | Percentage to Win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/4 | Florida State | 3-0 | 60.2 | 66.1 |
10/17 | Louisville | 3-0 | 83.5 | 83.6 |
10/25 | Stanford | 1-3 | 96.2 | 94.7 |
11/1 | SMU | 2-2 | 71.9 | 67.9 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 3-1 | 89.6 | 92.0 |
11/15 | NC State | 3-1 | 89.0 | 86.5 |
11/22 | Virginia Tech | 1-3 | 87.5 | 87.5 |
11/29 | Pittsburgh | 2-1 | 83.5 | 80.8 |
Miami was projected with a 94.7 percent chance to defeat Stanford in the projections posted entering week four. In its first game outside of Florida in 2025, Miami is projected with a 71.9 percent chance to win at SMU on November 1. That is up from 67.9 percent entering week four.
Miami returns home on November 8 with a chance to avenge its loss at Syracuse in the 2024 regular season finale that kept the Hurricanes out of the ACC Championship game and likely the College Football Playoff. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with a 92.0 percent chance to defeat Syracuse..
That is up from 89.6 percent entering week four. Miami has an 89.0 percent chance to beat North Carolina State on November 15 in its final regular-season home game. The FPI projected Miami with an 86.5 percent chance to defeat NC State entering week four.
Miami is projected with an 87.5 percent chance to win at Virginia Tech on November 22 in the only game the ESPN FPI projected the same entering week four. In their regular-season finale at Pittsburgh on November 29, Miami is projected with an 80.8 percent chance to win. That is down from 83.5 percent chance entering week four.
Miami is trending on a similar path to the 2024 season. The Hurricanes won their four non-conference games in 2024 and extended their winning streak to nine games before their week 11 loss at Georgia Tech, followed by the defeat at Syracuse ended their goal of playing in the ACC Championship Game and the CFP.